Daily notes · 14 days

The daily note, every day of it

Each morning PicksByOdds writes up what the Kalshi and Polymarket prices are saying: the markets with the money, the gaps between platforms, the weather screen. Here is every one, newest first.

October 2026

October 24Iran Invasion Contract Carries Real Odds Amid a Sea of Penny Bets
October 23Iran Invasion Odds Hold at 16 Cents With 70 Days Left
October 22Three Weather Buckets, One Forecast Number, and a Misleading Edge
October 21Iran Stands Alone Among the Highest-Volume Markets Priced Above a Penny
October 20Iran Invasion Market Prices a Real Risk at 15 Cents
October 19Iran Invasion Market Draws the Most Money at a Modest 15 Cents
October 18Iran Invasion Market Draws Real Money at a Skeptical 15 Cents
October 17The Iran Invasion Market Draws the Most Money at 15 Cents
October 16The Iran Contract Carries Real Odds; the 1¢ Markets Carry Something Else
October 15Iran Invasion Market Holds the Most Money, Priced at 16 Cents
October 14Iran Invasion Market Draws $74 Million While Traders Price Doubt
October 13The Iran Invasion Market Carries the Most Money and a Sober Price
October 12Big Volume, Small Odds: What the Iran Market Actually Signals
October 9Iran Invasion Market Shows What Real Uncertainty Looks Like