481 Kalshi, Polymarket and Limitless contracts in one place. Live implied probability, price history, volume, the same question priced on more than one exchange. Built for traders who need data, not betting advice.
Updated 9:07 PM ET, Oct 25 · prices refresh four times daily
YES has moved 84.8 percentage points since the archive started. Research signal only, not trading advice.
See all biggest movers →The most heavily traded market on our board right now is a question of war. "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" on Polymarket has drawn $75,336,035 in volume and trades at 19¢, with 68 days until it closes. That price implies traders see roughly a one-in-five chance, which is low in absolute terms but far from negligible for an event of that scale.
What stands out is the company it keeps. The next four markets by volume are all longshots priced at 1¢: Jesus Christ returning before 2027, LeBron James winning the 2028 presidency, and Oprah Winfrey or Bernie Sanders taking the 2028 Democratic nomination. Each has pulled more than $52 million in volume, yet none is priced as anything but an underdog. Volume here measures attention and capital parked, not conviction that these outcomes will happen.
That contrast makes the Iran market more informative. Among the top five, it is the only one where the price leaves real room to move in either direction. With 68 days remaining, any diplomatic or military headline should show up in that 19¢ figure quickly, giving readers a live gauge of how seriously money is taking escalation.
| Market | Category | YES | Volume | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | world | 19¢ | $75,423,787 | +4.0pp |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | culture | 1¢ | $66,703,503 | -0.1pp |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | world | 1¢ | $60,293,498 | -84.8pp |
| Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | politics | 1¢ | $54,890,727 | · |
| Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | politics | 1¢ | $54,443,226 | · |
| Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | politics | 1¢ | $52,922,260 | +0.4pp |
| Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | politics | 1¢ | $50,925,136 | +0.0pp |
| Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | politics | 1¢ | $48,899,239 | · |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | world | 99¢ | $45,097,777 | +84.0pp |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | world | 1¢ | $44,990,334 | -0.4pp |
171 football, cricket, esports and tennis matches with a live Yes price per result. The next 6 kickoffs are below; the full board, grouped by competition, is on the sports page.
Three contracts from today's book that reward a second look. Volume, edge, or resolution timing makes them sharper than average.
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