Every Kalshi and Polymarket contract in one place. Live implied probability, price history, volume, NOAA model edges. Built for traders who need data, not betting advice.
Updated 9:15 PM ET, Aug 31 · prices refresh four times daily
The NOAA ensemble forecast disagrees with the Kalshi market by 55 percentage points. Research signal only, not trading advice.
See all 12 mispricings →The prediction markets have been tracking a surprising trend in weather predictions for September 1st, with several temperature forecasts showing significant discrepancies between market pricing and expert models. The Kalshi market predicting that the maximum temperature will be below 87°F on September 1, 2026, currently sits at 2¢ despite a NOAA model prediction of 60%, indicating a substantial 55 percentage point edge favoring the lower temperature outcome.
This unusual gap between expert forecasts and market expectations underscores how prediction markets often reflect a variety of influences beyond just statistical probability. The high volume traded on these longshot bets-$894 in this case-suggests that many traders are betting against the established meteorological models, possibly due to unique local conditions or speculative behavior driven by other factors.
While it's tempting to see such discrepancies as opportunities for arbitrage, it’s crucial to approach them with caution. The high edge and low price of these longshot markets highlight the inherent risks associated with betting on outcomes that are already considered unlikely by expert consensus.
| Market | Category | YES | Volume | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | politics | 2¢ | $9,973,145 | -0.1pp |
| Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | politics | 1¢ | $9,615,159 | +0.5pp |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | politics | 5¢ | $9,612,578 | +0.0pp |
| Will Crystal Palace win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? | sports | 1¢ | $991,580 | · |
| Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | politics | 59¢ | $985,485 | +0.5pp |
| Will Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? | sports | 1¢ | $984,339 | · |
| Will Nooshi Dadgostar be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | economy | 1¢ | $979,240 | · |
| Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? | economy | 14¢ | $978,635 | -3.0pp |
| Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals? | sports | 1¢ | $970,982 | -0.2pp |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | world | 9¢ | $963,362 | · |
Three contracts from today's book that reward a second look. Volume, edge, or resolution timing makes them sharper than average.
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