Every Kalshi and Polymarket contract in one place. Live implied probability, price history, volume, NOAA model edges. Built for traders who need data, not betting advice.
The NOAA ensemble forecast disagrees with the Kalshi market by 44 percentage points. Research signal only, not trading advice.
See all 6 mispricings →The market on Kalshi for the high temperature in New York City on July 18, 2026, has a significant edge over the NOAA model. The markets are pricing the high temperature at or below 78°F, 45 cents to win, while the NOAA model predicts an 85% chance of it being 79°F or lower. This $10,335 volume trade reflects both confidence in the market and a notable +44 percentage point edge over the model.
This discrepancy could be due to the collective wisdom of seasoned traders who consider various factors not accounted for by the NOAA model, such as urban heat island effects or unexpected weather changes. Alternatively, it may indicate that the model's prediction is overly conservative, given its high confidence level and the market’s willingness to bet on a lower temperature.
Whether the market proves correct will be telling; either way, it highlights how diverse data sources can inform our understanding of complex weather predictions.
| Market | Category | YES | Volume | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Three contracts from today's book that reward a second look. Volume, edge, or resolution timing makes them sharper than average.
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