298 Kalshi and Polymarket contracts in one place. Live implied probability, price history, volume, the same question priced on both exchanges. Built for traders who need data, not betting advice.
Updated 5:03 PM ET, Oct 8 · prices refresh four times daily
YES has moved 80.0 percentage points since the archive started. Research signal only, not trading advice.
See all biggest movers →The market for "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" (Polymarket) has seen substantial trading volume, with $72 million wagered at a price of 15 cents. This high volume doesn't necessarily indicate the probability of an event occurring; it can simply be a result of investors betting on both sides of a market to exploit potential asymmetries.
A similar pattern is observed in other markets, such as "Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?" and "Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?", which have seen high volumes despite their low prices. These cases illustrate that volume alone doesn't translate to probability or a strong indicator of an event's likelihood.
It's essential for investors and market observers alike to keep in mind that trading volume can be driven by various factors, including speculation, misinformed betting, or even attempts to manipulate the market. To draw meaningful conclusions from these markets, one must consider multiple perspectives and avoid overemphasizing volume as a proxy for probability.
| Market | Category | YES | Volume | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | world | 15¢ | $72,870,287 | +0.0pp |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | culture | 1¢ | $66,412,609 | -0.1pp |
| Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | politics | 1¢ | $54,887,540 | · |
| Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | politics | 1¢ | $54,432,545 | · |
| Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | politics | 2¢ | $52,869,073 | +1.4pp |
| Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | politics | 1¢ | $50,825,922 | · |
| Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | politics | 1¢ | $48,912,616 | · |
| Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | politics | 1¢ | $44,880,900 | · |
| Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | politics | 1¢ | $44,636,853 | · |
| Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | politics | 1¢ | $44,431,049 | · |
25 football and tennis matches with a live Yes price per result. The next 6 kickoffs are below; the full board, grouped by competition, is on the sports page.
Three contracts from today's book that reward a second look. Volume, edge, or resolution timing makes them sharper than average.
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