Longshots · 43 markets

Contracts trading under 10¢

Low-probability events priced under a dime. If they resolve YES, a 5¢ contract pays 20x. Most won't , that's why they're longshots. The market is pricing them that way for a reason.

Market Platform YES Volume Implied %
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Polymarket $9,620,881 1.6%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Polymarket $9,613,107 5.1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Polymarket $985,977 8.5%
Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals? Polymarket $970,982 1.1%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's US Open? Polymarket $969,254 4.2%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? Polymarket $98,986 7.6%
Will Drake be the top artist for 2026? Polymarket $97,885 6.5%
Will Ethereum dip to $500 by December 31, 2026? Polymarket $97,673 2.4%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the second-most seats in Polymarket $97,228 6.5%
Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by September 30? Polymarket $97,040 8.5%
Will Faker win a Finals MVP Award at an international event in 2026? Polymarket $96,813 6.7%
Will St. Louis City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Polymarket $96,757 3.4%
NBA: LeBron James and Bronny James Jr. to Play Together in 2026-27? Polymarket $96,659 2.8%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $15,000 by end of December? Polymarket $96,381 1.5%
Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027? Polymarket $9,960 3.0%
Will the US federal government take a stake in The Boeing Company? Polymarket $9,950 7.5%
Will the median home value in Austin Metro be at least $486,000 on September 30? Polymarket $9,897 1.5%
Ventuals FDV above $2B one day after launch? Polymarket $9,854 1.8%
Hurupay FDV above $40M one day after launch? Polymarket $9,840 5.9%
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.5m barrels per day in 2026? Polymarket $9,840 4.9%
Will Gabriel Souza win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? Polymarket $9,838 1.7%
Will X launch a USD stablecoin in 2026? Polymarket $9,825 8.0%
Will the Republican Party win the NC-02 House seat? Polymarket $9,801 2.9%
Will James Comey be arrested before 2027? Polymarket $9,794 6.3%
Ventuals FDV above $1B one day after launch? Polymarket $9,780 1.7%
Will “Survivor” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding reality/competition series? Polymarket $9,707 4.2%
Will the Republicans win the New Jersey Senate race in 2026? Polymarket $9,694 3.4%
Will Max Holloway fight Justin Gaethje next? Polymarket $9,678 8.1%
Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026? Polymarket $9,674 6.2%
Will Tom Brady announce a presidential run before 2027? Polymarket $9,673 3.6%
Will Matthew Stafford win the 2026 NFL MVP? Polymarket $9,668 5.5%
Will XRP reach $2.80 by December 31, 2026? Polymarket $9,665 6.9%
Will Sam Darnold win the 2026 NFL MVP? Polymarket $9,653 1.2%
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the third-most sea Polymarket $9,633 8.5%
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-24 House seat? Polymarket $9,617 7.0%
Will Jordan join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Polymarket $9,615 6.0%
Will the maximum temperature be 73-74° on Sep 2, 2026: 73° to 74° Kalshi $3,022 5.0%
Will the maximum temperature be >78° on Sep 2, 2026: 79° or above Kalshi $2,531 6.0%
Will above 150000 jobs be added in August 2026: 150,000 Kalshi $1,775 6.0%
Will the maximum temperature be 77-78° on Sep 2, 2026: 77° to 78° Kalshi $1,342 3.0%
Will the maximum temperature be >99° on Sep 2, 2026: 100° or above Kalshi $918 2.0%
Will above 175000 jobs be added in August 2026: 175,000 Kalshi $725 4.0%
Will the maximum temperature be 98-99° on Sep 2, 2026: 98° to 99° Kalshi $653 5.0%

Markets priced in single digits are usually pricing tail risk: events that are possible but unlikely. The crowd has decided these contracts are worth only a few cents on the dollar.

Historically, longshot markets on prediction exchanges are slightly overpriced compared to true probability , a well-known bias called the "favorite-longshot" effect. But overpriced doesn't mean zero: some longshots do resolve YES and pay out 10-20x.

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