PicksByOdds
Longshots · 50 markets

Contracts trading under 10¢

Low-probability events priced under a dime. If they resolve YES, a 5¢ contract pays 20x. Most won't , that's why they're longshots. The market is pricing them that way for a reason.

Market Platform YES Volume Implied %
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Polymarket 1¢ $9,593,331 1.8%
Will Amanda Anisimova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Polymarket 6¢ $996,147 6.9%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Polymarket 2¢ $995,629 2.9%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Polymarket 9¢ $983,860 9.5%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Polymarket 2¢ $982,379 2.0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Polymarket 2¢ $980,418 2.9%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Polymarket 3¢ $980,203 3.9%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Polymarket 3¢ $974,305 3.6%
Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilia Polymarket 6¢ $970,497 6.8%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Polymarket 2¢ $968,912 2.1%
Will Anže Logar be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Polymarket 6¢ $966,645 6.7%
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? Polymarket 8¢ $99,277 8.6%
Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond? Polymarket 5¢ $99,048 5.3%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 by December 31, 2026? Polymarket 8¢ $98,946 8.5%
Will Discord’s market cap be $30B or greater at market close on IPO day? Polymarket 1¢ $98,464 1.2%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? Polymarket 2¢ $97,776 2.1%
Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by April 30? Polymarket 3¢ $97,591 3.8%
Will Clavicular be named People's Sexiest Man Alive in 2026? Polymarket 1¢ $97,450 1.2%
Will Ethereum reach $7,500 by December 31, 2026? Polymarket 6¢ $97,244 6.5%
Will Joaquin Panichelli be the top goal scorer in the 2025-26 Ligue 1 season? Polymarket 1¢ $97,074 1.2%
Will Jasmine Paolini win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Polymarket 1¢ $96,974 1.4%
Will SpaceX have 200 or more launches in 2026? Polymarket 6¢ $96,457 6.5%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Polymarket 3¢ $96,124 3.9%
Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win LoL Worlds 2026? Polymarket 6¢ $9,975 6.0%
Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by April 30, 2026? Polymarket 1¢ $9,969 1.1%
Another Iranian diplomat expelled by April 30? Polymarket 6¢ $9,955 6.5%
Will there be between 30 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz o Polymarket 7¢ $9,881 7.1%
Will Trump deport 800-900k people? Polymarket 2¢ $9,874 2.2%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $620b and $630b on April 30? Polymarket 8¢ $9,846 8.5%
Will Trump create a tariff dividend by June 30? Polymarket 6¢ $9,826 6.5%
Will the high temp in Chicago be >55° on Apr 19, 2026: 56° or above Kalshi 2¢ $9,818 2.0%
Will the Democratic Party win the ND-AL House seat? Polymarket 6¢ $9,777 6.5%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 2.25T and 2.50T? Polymarket 2¢ $9,777 2.3%
Will Trump end Department of Education before 2027? Polymarket 3¢ $9,777 3.4%
Will the Republicans win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026? Polymarket 5¢ $9,775 5.5%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 70-71°F on April 20? Polymarket 3¢ $9,758 3.6%
Will NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in April? Polymarket 6¢ $9,749 6.0%
Will Xi Jinping purge Wang Yi in 2026? Polymarket 6¢ $9,700 6.4%
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? Polymarket 8¢ $9,674 8.5%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell before 2027? Polymarket 7¢ $9,661 7.0%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 275M by June 5? Polymarket 6¢ $9,649 6.0%
Will the Audemars Piguet Index hit $44,000 (HIGH) by April 30? Polymarket 1¢ $9,648 1.7%
New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026? Polymarket 5¢ $9,636 5.1%
Will the high temp in Chicago be 54-55° on Apr 19, 2026: 54° to 55° Kalshi 4¢ $8,907 4.0%
Will the high temp in Chicago be <48° on Apr 19, 2026: 47° or below Kalshi 9¢ $7,690 9.0%
Will the **high temp in LA** be >75° on Apr 19, 2026: 76° or above Kalshi 2¢ $5,643 2.0%
Will the **high temp in LA** be 74-75° on Apr 19, 2026: 74° to 75° Kalshi 6¢ $5,406 6.0%
Will the **high temp in LA** be <68° on Apr 19, 2026: 67° or below Kalshi 6¢ $4,480 6.0%
Will the **high temp in NYC** be 56-57° on Apr 19, 2026: 56° to 57° Kalshi 7¢ $3,816 7.0%
Will above 200000 jobs be added in April 2026: 200,000 Kalshi 5¢ $3,253 5.0%

Markets priced in single digits are usually pricing tail risk: events that are possible but unlikely. The crowd has decided these contracts are worth only a few cents on the dollar.

Historically, longshot markets on prediction exchanges are slightly overpriced compared to true probability , a well-known bias called the "favorite-longshot" effect. But overpriced doesn't mean zero: some longshots do resolve YES and pay out 10-20x.