Longshots · 50 markets

Contracts trading under 10¢

Low-probability events priced under a dime. If they resolve YES, a 5¢ contract pays 20x. Most won't , that's why they're longshots. The market is pricing them that way for a reason.

Market	Platform	YES	Volume	Implied %
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Polymarket	1¢	$66,535,627	1.2%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Polymarket	1¢	$52,910,863	1.7%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Polymarket	1¢	$50,943,195	1.1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Polymarket	2¢	$44,177,880	2.1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Polymarket	4¢	$41,727,439	4.0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Polymarket	5¢	$27,346,146	5.5%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	2¢	$25,415,420	2.5%
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Polymarket	5¢	$24,081,147	5.6%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Polymarket	1¢	$18,617,852	1.5%
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Polymarket	2¢	$15,017,344	2.9%
Trump out as President before 2027?	Polymarket	4¢	$12,643,243	4.0%
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	Polymarket	2¢	$11,806,446	2.7%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Polymarket	2¢	$10,942,170	2.8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	4¢	$8,674,813	4.9%
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?	Polymarket	2¢	$7,962,230	2.4%
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Polymarket	7¢	$6,530,979	7.4%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Polymarket	1¢	$6,524,168	1.7%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	Polymarket	2¢	$5,280,756	2.9%
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Polymarket	3¢	$4,789,802	3.0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	7¢	$4,397,683	7.5%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Polymarket	1¢	$4,264,993	1.1%
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Polymarket	4¢	$4,070,771	4.7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	1¢	$3,504,422	1.8%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	8¢	$3,205,970	8.5%
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Polymarket	6¢	$3,140,714	6.5%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	2¢	$2,866,807	2.9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	3¢	$2,708,513	3.4%
AI bubble burst in 2026?	Polymarket	6¢	$2,439,203	7.0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	3¢	$2,381,317	3.8%
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Polymarket	7¢	$2,305,793	7.9%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	5¢	$2,216,641	5.5%
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Polymarket	7¢	$2,137,324	7.5%
Human moon landing in 2026?	Polymarket	1¢	$1,975,965	1.6%
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	Polymarket	9¢	$1,523,716	9.5%
New pandemic in 2026?	Polymarket	4¢	$1,234,018	4.2%
Will GitLab be acquired before 2027?	Polymarket	6¢	$1,202,330	6.4%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31?	Polymarket	2¢	$1,130,301	2.6%
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Polymarket	3¢	$1,066,418	3.9%
Will BP be acquired before 2027?	Polymarket	4¢	$1,064,969	4.5%
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Polymarket	4¢	$1,056,257	4.2%
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	2¢	$1,055,480	2.2%
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?	Polymarket	1¢	$1,037,885	1.3%
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027?	Polymarket	4¢	$994,094	4.7%
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	Polymarket	1¢	$833,171	1.1%
Ebola pandemic in 2026?	Polymarket	2¢	$784,089	2.2%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Polymarket	3¢	$55,016	3.4%
Will the maximum temperature be 64-65° on Oct 17, 2026: 64° to 65°	Kalshi	3¢	$7,919	3.0%
Will the maximum temperature be >95° on Oct 17, 2026: 96° or above	Kalshi	8¢	$5,388	8.0%
Will the maximum temperature be <88° on Oct 17, 2026: 87° or below	Kalshi	6¢	$3,091	6.0%
Will the maximum temperature be 53-54° on Oct 17, 2026: 53° to 54°	Kalshi	2¢	$1,647	2.0%

Markets priced in single digits are usually pricing tail risk: events that are possible but unlikely. The crowd has decided these contracts are worth only a few cents on the dollar.

Historically, longshot markets on prediction exchanges are slightly overpriced compared to true probability , a well-known bias called the "favorite-longshot" effect. But overpriced doesn't mean zero: some longshots do resolve YES and pay out 10-20x.