Longshots · 50 markets

Contracts trading under 10¢

Low-probability events priced under a dime. If they resolve YES, a 5¢ contract pays 20x. Most won't , that's why they're longshots. The market is pricing them that way for a reason.

Market	Platform	YES	Volume	Implied %
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series?	Polymarket	7¢	$999,995	7.1%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Polymarket	1¢	$997,345	1.1%
Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Polymarket	2¢	$987,072	2.8%
China x Japan military clash before 2027?	Polymarket	6¢	$985,657	6.5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	5¢	$982,038	5.5%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series?	Polymarket	2¢	$972,566	2.4%
Will LeBron James play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026-27?	Polymarket	1¢	$969,998	1.8%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Polymarket	3¢	$969,502	3.0%
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?	Polymarket	3¢	$968,078	3.0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Polymarket	1¢	$962,922	1.1%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Polymarket	3¢	$961,499	3.8%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	3¢	$960,482	3.5%
Will the high temp in LA be >79° on Jul 18, 2026: 80° or above	Kalshi	3¢	$236,496	3.0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in third place in the first round of the	Polymarket	1¢	$99,783	1.2%
Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026?	Polymarket	6¢	$99,777	6.0%
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's US Open?	Polymarket	1¢	$99,596	1.1%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $50 in July?	Polymarket	9¢	$99,365	9.5%
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?	Polymarket	9¢	$98,862	9.0%
Will Baker Mayfield win the 2026 NFL MVP?	Polymarket	1¢	$98,828	1.8%
Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 TOUR Championship?	Polymarket	2¢	$98,243	2.9%
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	7¢	$98,230	7.0%
Will Pat McFadden be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Polymarket	1¢	$98,163	1.2%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?	Polymarket	2¢	$98,010	2.6%
Will the US strike 13 countries in 2026?	Polymarket	1¢	$96,810	1.4%
Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31?	Polymarket	1¢	$96,558	1.5%
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026?	Polymarket	3¢	$95,952	3.6%
Will the high temp in NYC be 79-80° on Jul 18, 2026: 79° to 80°	Kalshi	5¢	$37,025	5.0%
Will the high temp in NYC be 85-86° on Jul 18, 2026: 85° to 86°	Kalshi	2¢	$14,180	2.0%
Will Jordan Bardella leave the National Rally by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	3¢	$9,979	3.6%
Will Ventuals launch a token by September 30 2026?	Polymarket	1¢	$9,948	1.1%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	7¢	$9,943	7.5%
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.75% or lower before 2027?	Polymarket	4¢	$9,922	4.5%
Will Zohran Mamdani be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?	Polymarket	8¢	$9,919	8.6%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?	Polymarket	3¢	$9,891	3.2%
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $75B by July 31?	Polymarket	1¢	$9,878	1.7%
Will the Republican Party win the OR-06 House seat?	Polymarket	2¢	$9,861	2.5%
Intel (INTC) Q2 adjusted gross margin (non-GAAP) 38%-40%?	Polymarket	2¢	$9,835	2.5%
Will the Democrats win the Tennessee Senate race in 2026?	Polymarket	2¢	$9,781	2.5%
Costco increases hotdog price before 2027?	Polymarket	7¢	$9,757	7.0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in third place in the first round of the 2	Polymarket	1¢	$9,720	1.4%
Will the Democrats win the South Dakota governor race in 2026?	Polymarket	6¢	$9,708	6.8%
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.00% and 4.49%?	Polymarket	5¢	$9,634	5.4%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Polymarket	1¢	$9,621	1.8%
Will Karishma Manzur be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Hampshire?	Polymarket	3¢	$9,612	3.8%
Will Iran recognize Israel by December 31?	Polymarket	4¢	$9,608	4.7%
Will Matt Klein be the Democratic nominee for MN-02?	Polymarket	2¢	$9,598	2.1%
Justin & Hailey Bieber split in 2026?	Polymarket	6¢	$9,588	6.0%
Will the Republican Party win the NC-02 House seat?	Polymarket	3¢	$9,586	3.5%
Will the Democratic Party win the LA-05 House seat?	Polymarket	6¢	$9,573	6.5%
Will the Republican Party win the CA-44 House seat?	Polymarket	6¢	$9,563	6.5%

Markets priced in single digits are usually pricing tail risk: events that are possible but unlikely. The crowd has decided these contracts are worth only a few cents on the dollar.

Historically, longshot markets on prediction exchanges are slightly overpriced compared to true probability , a well-known bias called the "favorite-longshot" effect. But overpriced doesn't mean zero: some longshots do resolve YES and pay out 10-20x.