Longshots · 50 markets

Contracts trading under 10¢

Low-probability events priced under a dime. If they resolve YES, a 5¢ contract pays 20x. Most won't , that's why they're longshots. The market is pricing them that way for a reason.

Market	Platform	YES	Volume	Implied %
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Polymarket	6¢	$9,903,380	7.0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Polymarket	1¢	$9,869,257	1.1%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Polymarket	2¢	$9,607,675	2.1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series?	Polymarket	3¢	$989,847	3.6%
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Polymarket	2¢	$989,407	2.1%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	9¢	$981,272	9.5%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Polymarket	1¢	$980,800	1.1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series?	Polymarket	2¢	$969,617	2.1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?	Polymarket	1¢	$99,876	1.8%
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?	Polymarket	9¢	$99,437	9.5%
Will Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?	Polymarket	8¢	$98,878	8.6%
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Polymarket	3¢	$98,744	3.4%
Will Baker Mayfield win the 2026 NFL MVP?	Polymarket	4¢	$98,413	4.4%
Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Polymarket	2¢	$98,332	2.5%
Anysphere (Cursor) IPO before 2027?	Polymarket	4¢	$97,876	4.3%
Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30?	Polymarket	2¢	$97,046	2.3%
Extended FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Polymarket	2¢	$96,668	2.9%
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by June 30?	Polymarket	1¢	$94,927	1.4%
Will the high temp in LA be >76° on Jun 3, 2026: 77° or above	Kalshi	2¢	$43,827	2.0%
Will the high temp in NYC be 80-81° on Jun 3, 2026: 80° to 81°	Kalshi	6¢	$20,728	6.0%
Will the high temp in LA be 73-74° on Jun 3, 2026: 73° to 74°	Kalshi	6¢	$19,858	6.0%
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Polymarket	3¢	$9,998	3.2%
Will June 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?	Polymarket	9¢	$9,963	9.5%
Will the Republican Party win the NY-08 House seat?	Polymarket	4¢	$9,944	4.5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 7?	Polymarket	1¢	$9,858	1.1%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,600 on the final trading day of June 2026?	Polymarket	1¢	$9,845	1.3%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,800 on the final trading day of June 2026?	Polymarket	1¢	$9,819	1.6%
UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026?	Polymarket	6¢	$9,787	6.5%
Nick Fuentes arrested by June 30?	Polymarket	1¢	$9,738	1.5%
Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena i	Polymarket	3¢	$9,734	3.1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 6?	Polymarket	2¢	$9,718	2.4%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2026?	Polymarket	3¢	$9,705	3.5%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2026?	Polymarket	2¢	$9,686	2.1%
Will Minnesota use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm el	Polymarket	2¢	$9,649	2.8%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Polymarket	4¢	$9,647	4.5%
Will Anthony Cirelli win the 2025–2026 NHL Frank J. Selke Trophy?	Polymarket	1¢	$9,645	1.6%
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.75% or lower before 2027?	Polymarket	6¢	$9,628	6.0%
Will Dominican Republic win on 2026-06-03?	Polymarket	7¢	$9,617	7.5%
Will the Republican Party win the OR-06 House seat?	Polymarket	2¢	$9,615	2.4%
Will Trump repeal Presidential term limits in 2026?	Polymarket	6¢	$9,600	6.1%
Hurupay FDV above $30M one day after launch?	Polymarket	4¢	$9,595	4.9%
Will June be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?	Polymarket	3¢	$9,584	3.0%
Will Hillary Clinton announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Polymarket	4¢	$9,584	4.3%
Will Kylian Mbappe leave Real Madrid before August 31?	Polymarket	7¢	$9,579	7.0%
Will Anthropic have the highest private market valuation on June 30?	Polymarket	1¢	$9,565	1.7%
Will the Democratic Party win the UT-04 House seat?	Polymarket	8¢	$9,549	8.5%
Will the Democratic Party win the OK-02 House seat?	Polymarket	4¢	$9,506	4.5%
Will Coco Gauff win the 2026 Women’s US Open?	Polymarket	6¢	$9,495	6.3%
Will the high temp in LA be <70° on Jun 4, 2026: 69° or below	Kalshi	2¢	$2,026	2.0%
Will the high temp in LA be >77° on Jun 4, 2026: 78° or above	Kalshi	2¢	$1,956	2.0%

Markets priced in single digits are usually pricing tail risk: events that are possible but unlikely. The crowd has decided these contracts are worth only a few cents on the dollar.

Historically, longshot markets on prediction exchanges are slightly overpriced compared to true probability , a well-known bias called the "favorite-longshot" effect. But overpriced doesn't mean zero: some longshots do resolve YES and pay out 10-20x.