Biggest movers · 43 markets

Markets making the biggest moves

Where the price has moved the most since we started tracking. Big moves mean new information hit the market , or that sentiment shifted without much new data.

Market	Platform	YES	Volume	Δ since start
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.25% following the Fed'	Kalshi	85¢	$5,249	+44.0pp
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed'	Kalshi	85¢	$12,151	+41.0pp
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.50% following the Fed'	Kalshi	95¢	$4,852	+40.0pp
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed'	Kalshi	66¢	$5,082	+34.0pp
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.50% following the Fed'	Kalshi	85¢	$5,335	+33.0pp
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.75% following the Fed'	Kalshi	96¢	$2,877	+33.0pp
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed'	Kalshi	69¢	$20,261	+32.0pp
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.75% following the Fed'	Kalshi	72¢	$3,184	-27.0pp
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.25% following the Fed'	Kalshi	70¢	$4,805	-24.0pp
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?	Polymarket	9¢	$99,437	-17.5pp
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.00% following the Fed'	Kalshi	99¢	$3,774	+15.0pp
Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30?	Polymarket	2¢	$97,046	-14.3pp
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.50% following the Fed'	Kalshi	97¢	$2,471	+14.0pp
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.00% following the Fed'	Kalshi	85¢	$6,631	-13.0pp
Will above 40000 jobs be added in November 2026: 40,000	Kalshi	63¢	$203	+12.0pp
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed'	Kalshi	57¢	$7,810	+12.0pp
Will above 110000 jobs be added in May 2026: 110,000	Kalshi	40¢	$50,209	+11.5pp
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed'	Kalshi	1¢	$2,216	-11.0pp
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-21 House seat?	Polymarket	25¢	$9,924	-11.0pp
Will above 80000 jobs be added in October 2026: 80,000	Kalshi	45¢	$185	+11.0pp
Will above 90000 jobs be added in October 2026: 90,000	Kalshi	40¢	$290	+10.0pp
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B?	Polymarket	84¢	$97,918	+10.0pp
Will Loopscale launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	27¢	$96,096	-9.0pp
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed'	Kalshi	28¢	$9,342	+8.0pp
Will above -25000 jobs be added in November 2026: -25,000	Kalshi	75¢	$593	-8.0pp
Will above 0 jobs be added in November 2026?	Kalshi	67¢	$282	-8.0pp
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?	Polymarket	65¢	$97,430	+7.5pp
Will above 90000 jobs be added in November 2026: 90,000	Kalshi	37¢	$255	+7.0pp
Will above 70000 jobs be added in October 2026: 70,000	Kalshi	50¢	$159	+7.0pp
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.25% following the Fed'	Kalshi	78¢	$1,522	-7.0pp
Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Polymarket	11¢	$968,893	-6.5pp
Will Zendaya and Tom Holland get married by December 31?	Polymarket	61¢	$9,654	-6.2pp
Will above 150000 jobs be added in May 2026: 150,000	Kalshi	19¢	$20,931	+6.0pp
Will above 80000 jobs be added in November 2026: 80,000	Kalshi	42¢	$233	+6.0pp
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed'	Kalshi	57¢	$9,365	+6.0pp
Will above 50000 jobs be added in November 2026: 50,000	Kalshi	59¢	$357	+5.0pp
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.00% following the Fed'	Kalshi	75¢	$1,665	-3.0pp
Will above 125000 jobs be added in November 2026: 125,000	Kalshi	13¢	$1,402	-3.0pp
Will the Republican Party win the NY-08 House seat?	Polymarket	4¢	$9,944	-2.8pp
Anysphere (Cursor) IPO before 2027?	Polymarket	4¢	$97,876	-2.4pp
Hurupay FDV above $30M one day after launch?	Polymarket	4¢	$9,595	-2.3pp
Will above 30000 jobs be added in November 2026: 30,000	Kalshi	64¢	$479	+2.0pp
Will above 70000 jobs be added in November 2026: 70,000	Kalshi	49¢	$245	+2.0pp

Big price moves are the clearest sign the market is processing new information. Sometimes it's a news event, sometimes it's a weather forecast update, sometimes it's just the market catching up to data that was published days ago.

A +10pp move on a market that was 50/50 means someone (or the crowd) now thinks the event is 10 percentage points more likely than before. That's a meaningful shift in implied probability.