Fed Decision in December: No change?
Prices are mid-market at the last refresh. The gap is what the other venue pays for the same outcome; the Divergence Index tracks these gaps every day.
What resolves this contract
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g
Reading the odds on this market
At 25.5¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 25.5% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 4.
$10 on YES buys about 39 contracts that pay $39.22 if it happens; $10 on NO at 74.5¢ buys about 13.4 that pay $13.42 if it does not.
$18 has traded on it on Limitless, making it number 310 by volume of the 362 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 25¢ means the market is pricing in a 25.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($18) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($0) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Limitless. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Similar markets on the US-regulated exchange
Kalshi lists related contracts US traders can legally access. Spread is typically similar; liquidity varies.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | 11¢ | $16,260,823 |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | 97¢ | $9,370,232 |
| Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | 1¢ | $5,331,578 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-12-10, 37 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 25¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 74¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 25¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 25.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Limitless. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $18 in total traded volume and $0 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.