PicksByOdds
Model vs. Market · 50 markets analyzed

Biggest model-vs-market gaps on Kalshi

Where the NOAA weather model disagrees most with the Kalshi implied probability. Sorted by absolute edge. This is research data: every market is live, every probability is real.

Top mispricings

Biggest gaps between model and market

Market Market price NOAA model Edge Lean
Will the high temp in NYC be <79° on Jul 18, 2026: 78° or below 45¢ 85.0% +44.0pp NO
Will the high temp in NYC be >86° on Jul 18, 2026: 87° or above 1¢ 85.0% +44.0pp NO
Will the high temp in NYC be 81-82° on Jul 18, 2026: 81° to 82° 26¢ 85.0% +44.0pp NO
Will the high temp in NYC be 85-86° on Jul 18, 2026: 85° to 86° 2¢ 85.0% +44.0pp NO
Will the high temp in NYC be 83-84° on Jul 18, 2026: 83° to 84° 2¢ 85.0% +44.0pp NO
Will the high temp in NYC be 79-80° on Jul 18, 2026: 79° to 80° 28¢ 76.2% +27.2pp NO
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following 1¢ — -50.0pp ↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following 4¢ — -44.0pp ↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following 28¢ — -41.0pp ↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following 59¢ — -36.0pp ↓
Will Blades Brown finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Corales Puntacana Cha 71¢ — +31.0pp ↑
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following 70¢ — -28.0pp ↓
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? 11¢ — -27.0pp ↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.50% following 88¢ — +26.0pp ↑
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following 28¢ — -24.0pp ↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following 28¢ — -24.0pp ↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.00% following 89¢ — +23.0pp ↑
Intel (INTC) Q2 adjusted gross margin (non-GAAP) 38%-40%? 6¢ — -20.5pp ↓
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? 8¢ — -15.5pp ↓
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? 12¢ — -14.0pp ↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following 62¢ — -14.0pp ↓
Will Puffpaw launch a token by March 31, 2027? 62¢ — +14.0pp ↑
Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $5B in 2026? 76¢ — +12.5pp ↑
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? 10¢ — -12.0pp ↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.75% following 86¢ — -12.0pp ↓
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 20 31¢ — -11.0pp ↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.00% following 96¢ — +10.0pp ↑
Will above 30000 jobs be added in November 2026: Above 30,000 71¢ — +10.0pp ↑
Will above 50000 jobs be added in November 2026: 50,000 54¢ — -10.0pp ↓
Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 TOUR Championship? 2¢ — -9.6pp ↓
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July? 13¢ — -9.0pp ↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.50% following 77¢ — +9.0pp ↑
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following 69¢ — +8.0pp ↑
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027? 31¢ — -7.3pp ↓
Will the high temp in Chicago be 91-92° on Jul 18, 2026: 91° to 92° 40¢ — +7.0pp ↑
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? 8¢ — -7.0pp ↓
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by July 31? 16¢ — -7.0pp ↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.25% following 90¢ — -7.0pp ↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.25% following 96¢ — +7.0pp ↑
Will above 60000 jobs be added in November 2026: 60,000 56¢ — +7.0pp ↑
Will the high temp in LA be >79° on Jul 18, 2026: 80° or above 74¢ — -5.0pp ↓
Will the high temp in Chicago be 89-90° on Jul 18, 2026: 89° to 90° 23¢ — -5.0pp ↓
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? 27¢ — +4.1pp ↑
Will the high temp in Chicago be 93-94° on Jul 18, 2026: 93° to 94° 19¢ — +4.0pp ↑
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $50 in July? 9¢ — +4.0pp ↑
Will Elmedin Konaković be the next Chairman of the Council of Ministers  31¢ — -4.0pp ↓
Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary el 20¢ — -3.6pp ↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.00% following 95¢ — -3.0pp ↓
Will above 60000 jobs be added in October 2026: 60,000 52¢ — -3.0pp ↓
Will the high temp in LA be 76-77° on Jul 18, 2026: 76° to 77° 7¢ — +3.0pp ↑
Methodology

How the edge is calculated

Each row on this page is a live Kalshi weather market with a current NOAA ensemble probability from our tracking system. The "edge" column is the raw difference between the model's estimate and the market's implied probability.

A +30pp edge on a YES contract means the NOAA ensemble sees the event as 30 percentage points more likely than the Kalshi market does. That gap could close because: (a) the model is wrong, (b) the market is slow to incorporate the forecast, or (c) the event resolves and the wrong side was pricing it.

This page is not trading advice. Prediction markets price in information the model cannot see (breaking news, insider information, recent weather observations past our scan time). Treat the edge column as a research signal, not a recommendation.

Data sources

  • Market prices: Kalshi public trade API , the implied probability is the midpoint between YES bid and YES ask.
  • NOAA probabilities: Our internal weather model ensemble, blending GFS and ECMWF forecasts for the market's target location and strike.
  • Refresh: Market prices refresh every several hours; NOAA signals refresh as new forecasts are published.
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