Biggest moves · 50 markets

Biggest price moves across Kalshi and Polymarket

The Kalshi and Polymarket contracts whose implied probability moved the most since we started recording each one. Sorted by absolute price change. A large mover is a signal that new information, or a liquidity gap, has repriced the market.

Top movers

Biggest price changes across the book

Market	Market price	Volume	Move	Dir
Will there be more than 6 hurricanes of category 3 or above in the Easte	99¢	$2,367	+69.0pp	↑
Will there be more than 8 hurricanes of category 1 or above in the Easte	99¢	$1,171	+50.0pp	↑
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 6.00% following	1¢	$3	-48.5pp	↓
Will there be more than 5 hurricanes of category 1 or above in the Centr	75¢	$1,653	+48.0pp	↑
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.75% following	8¢	$0	-41.5pp	↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.75% following	35¢	$4	-41.0pp	↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.50% following	10¢	$0	-39.0pp	↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.00% following	2¢	$122	-39.0pp	↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.25% following	13¢	$5	-36.5pp	↓
Will the maximum temperature be <60° on Oct 16, 2026: 59° or below	99¢	$24,471	+34.0pp	↑
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 6.00% following	16¢	$0	-33.5pp	↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.50% following	83¢	$1	+33.0pp	↑
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.75% following	81¢	$1	+31.0pp	↑
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.25% following	20¢	$0	-29.5pp	↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.50% following	21¢	$4	-29.0pp	↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.00% following	24¢	$0	-25.5pp	↓
Will the maximum temperature be 60-61° on Oct 16, 2026: 60° to 61°	1¢	$23,453	-25.0pp	↓
Will there be more than 7 hurricanes of category 3 or above in the Easte	61¢	$4,210	+25.0pp	↑
Will the maximum temperature be <75° on Oct 16, 2026: 74° or below	99¢	$20,607	+22.0pp	↑
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 6.00% following	28¢	$0	-21.5pp	↓
Will the maximum temperature be 75-76° on Oct 16, 2026: 75° to 76°	1¢	$26,528	-21.0pp	↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.00% following	25¢	$5,596	+21.0pp	↑
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	65¢	$999,892	+20.5pp	↑
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	55¢	$2,432,002	-20.5pp	↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.75% following	31¢	$0	-19.0pp	↓
Will there be more than 11 hurricanes of category 1 or above in the East	10¢	$3,276	-19.0pp	↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.50% following	38¢	$5,587	-18.0pp	↓
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	64¢	$5,815,284	+17.8pp	↑
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	35¢	$1,366,814	-17.6pp	↓
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	27¢	$4,285,516	-17.4pp	↓
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	20¢	$3,873,311	-16.0pp	↓
Will the maximum temperature be >94° on Oct 16, 2026: 95° or above	99¢	$69,959	+15.0pp	↑
Will there be more than 9 hurricanes of category 1 or above in the Easte	98¢	$3,554	+14.0pp	↑
Will above 60000 jobs be added in October 2026: 60,000	44¢	$1,796	-14.0pp	↓
Will above 70000 jobs be added in October 2026: 70,000	39¢	$22,115	-13.0pp	↓
Will there be more than 10 hurricanes of category 1 or above in the East	50¢	$2,393	+13.0pp	↑
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	70¢	$1,202,435	-12.5pp	↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.25% following	37¢	$0	-12.5pp	↓
Will above 125000 jobs be added in November 2026: 125,000	14¢	$1,624	-11.0pp	↓
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.75% following	10¢	$16	-11.0pp	↓
Will the maximum temperature be 93-94° on Oct 16, 2026: 93° to 94°	1¢	$87,560	-10.0pp	↓
Will above 30000 jobs be added in November 2026: Above 30,000	76¢	$667	+9.0pp	↑
Will the maximum temperature be 62-63° on Oct 16, 2026: 62° to 63°	1¢	$9,511	-8.0pp	↓
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?	9¢	$2,017,206	-8.0pp	↓
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	15¢	$1,445,931	-7.5pp	↓
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	11¢	$14,979,608	-7.0pp	↓
Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?	12¢	$2,406,813	+6.5pp	↑
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	29¢	$7,697,319	-6.0pp	↓
Will there be more than 3 hurricanes of category 3 or above in the Centr	28¢	$1,684	-6.0pp	↓
Philadelphia wins	43¢	$22,718	-5.0pp	↓

Methodology

How the move is calculated

Each row on this page is a live contract with at least two prices in our archive. The move column is the latest price minus the first price we recorded for that contract, in percentage points.

A move of +30pp means the implied probability rose 30 points over the window we have tracked. A large move can mean new information reached the market. It can also mean a thin market where one order shifted the price, so check the volume column before reading much into it.

This page is not trading advice. Treat the move column as a starting point for your own research, not a recommendation.

Data sources

Market prices: the public Kalshi and Polymarket APIs.
Price history: our own archive of each refresh, which is why newer contracts have shorter windows.
Refresh: several times a day.

For weather contracts, see how the market's favorite compares with the National Weather Service forecast on market vs meteorologist.