Biggest price moves on Kalshi today
The Kalshi contracts whose implied probability moved the most since the archive started. Sorted by absolute price change. A large mover is a signal that new information, or a liquidity gap, has repriced the market.
Biggest price changes across the book
How the edge is calculated
Each row on this page is a live Kalshi weather market with a current NOAA ensemble probability from our tracking system. The "edge" column is the raw difference between the model's estimate and the market's implied probability.
A +30pp edge on a YES contract means the NOAA ensemble sees the event as 30 percentage points more likely than the Kalshi market does. That gap could close because: (a) the model is wrong, (b) the market is slow to incorporate the forecast, or (c) the event resolves and the wrong side was pricing it.
This page is not trading advice. Prediction markets price in information the model cannot see (breaking news, insider information, recent weather observations past our scan time). Treat the edge column as a research signal, not a recommendation.
Data sources
- Market prices: Kalshi public trade API; the implied probability is the midpoint between YES bid and YES ask.
- NOAA probabilities: Our internal weather model ensemble, blending GFS and ECMWF forecasts for the market's target location and strike.
- Refresh: Market prices refresh every several hours; NOAA signals refresh as new forecasts are published.