Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?
What resolves this contract
If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 3.75% following the Federal Reserve's Apr 28, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 56¢ means the market is pricing in a 56.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($10,744) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($1,682) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Kalshi. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026? | 4¢ | $987,405 |
| Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? | 5¢ | $982,470 |
| Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | 1¢ | $971,843 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 3.75% following the Federal Reserve's Apr 28, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2027-04-28, 225 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 56¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 44¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 56¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 56.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Kalshi. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $10,744 in total traded volume and $1,682 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.