Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?
No other exchange lists this exact question right now. The Divergence Index shows the questions that trade on two or three venues at once.
What resolves this contract
If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
Reading the odds on this market
At 7.6¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 7.6% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 13.
$10 on YES buys about 132 contracts that pay $131.58 if it happens; $10 on NO at 92.4¢ buys about 10.8 that pay $10.82 if it does not.
The favoured side, NO, returns 8.2% if it wins, with the money locked up for 68 days until January 1, 2027; that works out to about 52.8% a year.
Over the last 30 daily readings the YES price moved up 3.3 points, trading between 1.6¢ and 11.9¢.
$1,145,615 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $31,034 still riding on the outcome, making it number 134 by volume of the 387 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 7¢ means the market is pricing in a 7.6% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($1,145,615) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($31,034) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | 3¢ | $42,886,450 |
| Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? | 2¢ | $7,962,333 |
| Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? | 15¢ | $5,041,507 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2027-01-01, 68 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 7¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 92¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 7¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 7.6% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $1,145,615 in total traded volume and $31,034 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.