Cross-venue arbitrage · 69 matched pairs

Kalshi vs. Polymarket price gaps

When the same underlying event is listed on both Kalshi and Polymarket but priced differently, the market is telling you something. These pairs are detected by title similarity and sorted by the biggest price disagreement.

Matched marketsKalshi YESPolymarket YESSpreadTitle match
Game 1: Phoenix at Oklahoma City Winner? 90¢ 83.2pp 23%
Game 2: Phoenix at Oklahoma City Winner? 86¢ 79.1pp 23%
Game 3: Oklahoma City at Phoenix Winner? 86¢ 79.1pp 23%
Game 2: Orlando at Detroit Winner? 77¢ 70.2pp 24%
Game 3: Detroit at Orlando Winner? 67¢ 60.2pp 24%
Game 3: Detroit at Orlando Winner? 46¢ 39.1pp 24%
Will the S&P 500 be between 7125 and 7149.9999 on Apr 24, 2026 a 31¢ 30.0pp 25%
Will the S&P 500 be between 7000 and 7024.9999 on Apr 24, 2026 a 31¢ 30.0pp 25%
Will the S&P 500 be between 7100 and 7124.9999 on Apr 24, 2026 a 28¢ 28.0pp 25%
Will the S&P 500 be between 7050 and 7074.9999 on Apr 24, 2026 a 28¢ 28.0pp 25%
Will the S&P 500 be between 7075 and 7099.9999 on Apr 24, 2026 a 28¢ 27.0pp 25%
Bitcoin price range on Apr 19, 2026: $85,800 or above 23¢ 22.0pp 79%
Bitcoin price range on Apr 19, 2026: $67,199.99 or below 23¢ 22.0pp 79%
Bitcoin price range on Apr 19, 2026: $85,700 to 85,799.99 23¢ 22.0pp 79%
Bitcoin price range on Apr 19, 2026: $85,600 to 85,699.99 23¢ 22.0pp 79%
Bitcoin price range on Apr 19, 2026: $85,500 to 85,599.99 23¢ 22.0pp 79%
Bitcoin price range on Apr 19, 2026: $85,400 to 85,499.99 23¢ 22.0pp 79%
Bitcoin price range on Apr 19, 2026: $85,300 to 85,399.99 23¢ 22.0pp 79%
Bitcoin price range on Apr 19, 2026: $85,200 to 85,299.99 23¢ 22.0pp 79%
Bitcoin price range on Apr 19, 2026: $85,100 to 85,199.99 23¢ 22.0pp 79%
Bitcoin price range on Apr 19, 2026: $85,000 to 85,099.99 23¢ 22.0pp 79%
Bitcoin price range on Apr 19, 2026: $84,900 to 84,999.99 23¢ 22.0pp 79%
Bitcoin price range on Apr 19, 2026: $84,800 to 84,899.99 23¢ 22.0pp 79%
Bitcoin price range on Apr 19, 2026: $84,700 to 84,799.99 23¢ 22.0pp 79%
Bitcoin price range on Apr 19, 2026: $84,600 to 84,699.99 23¢ 22.0pp 79%
Bitcoin price range on Apr 19, 2026: $84,500 to 84,599.99 23¢ 22.0pp 79%
Bitcoin price range on Apr 19, 2026: $84,400 to 84,499.99 23¢ 22.0pp 79%
Bitcoin price range on Apr 19, 2026: $84,300 to 84,399.99 23¢ 22.0pp 79%
Bitcoin price range on Apr 19, 2026: $84,200 to 84,299.99 23¢ 22.0pp 79%
Bitcoin price range on Apr 19, 2026: $84,100 to 84,199.99 23¢ 22.0pp 79%
Bitcoin price range on Apr 19, 2026: $84,000 to 84,099.99 23¢ 22.0pp 79%
Dogecoin price range on Apr 19, 2026: $0.275 or above 23¢ 22.0pp 37%
Dogecoin price range on Apr 19, 2026: $0.0099999 or below 23¢ 22.0pp 37%
Dogecoin price range on Apr 19, 2026: $0.27 to 0.2749999 23¢ 22.0pp 37%
Dogecoin price range on Apr 19, 2026: $0.265 to 0.2699999 23¢ 22.0pp 37%
Dogecoin price range on Apr 19, 2026: $0.26 to 0.2649999 23¢ 22.0pp 37%
Dogecoin price range on Apr 19, 2026: $0.255 to 0.2599999 23¢ 22.0pp 37%
Dogecoin price range on Apr 19, 2026: $0.25 to 0.2549999 23¢ 22.0pp 37%
Dogecoin price range on Apr 19, 2026: $0.245 to 0.2499999 23¢ 22.0pp 37%
Dogecoin price range on Apr 19, 2026: $0.24 to 0.2449999 23¢ 22.0pp 37%
Dogecoin price range on Apr 19, 2026: $0.235 to 0.2399999 23¢ 22.0pp 37%
Dogecoin price range on Apr 19, 2026: $0.23 to 0.2349999 23¢ 22.0pp 37%
Dogecoin price range on Apr 19, 2026: $0.225 to 0.2299999 23¢ 22.0pp 37%
Dogecoin price range on Apr 19, 2026: $0.22 to 0.2249999 23¢ 22.0pp 37%
Dogecoin price range on Apr 19, 2026: $0.215 to 0.2199999 23¢ 22.0pp 37%
Dogecoin price range on Apr 19, 2026: $0.21 to 0.2149999 23¢ 22.0pp 37%
Dogecoin price range on Apr 19, 2026: $0.205 to 0.2099999 23¢ 22.0pp 37%
Dogecoin price range on Apr 19, 2026: $0.2 to 0.2049999 23¢ 22.0pp 37%
Dogecoin price range on Apr 19, 2026: $0.195 to 0.1999999 23¢ 22.0pp 37%
Dogecoin price range on Apr 19, 2026: $0.19 to 0.1949999 23¢ 22.0pp 37%

How this works: we tokenize every Kalshi and Polymarket market title, remove common words, and compute Jaccard similarity between every cross-platform pair. Pairs with 35%+ word overlap and a 5pp+ price gap are surfaced here.

Why it matters: prediction markets are supposed to price the same event at roughly the same probability regardless of where it's listed. When they don't, it's a signal that either one venue has stale pricing, information is moving through one venue faster than the other, or the contract terms differ in ways the title doesn't reveal.

This is not trading advice. US traders cannot legally use Polymarket, and cross-venue arbitrage involves real execution risk. This page is a research tool , look closely at each pair before drawing conclusions.