PicksByOdds
Same question, two exchanges · 121 verified pairs

Kalshi vs. Polymarket price gaps

Every row is one question that both exchanges are trading right now, with each side's live bid and ask. Most pairs agree to within a point. The ones that do not are at the top.

Where the books cross

On 53 of 121 shared questions the highest bid on one exchange is above the lowest ask on the other. Each band runs from an exchange's bid to its ask. The green space between them is the locked gap.

  • Kalshi bid to ask
  • Polymarket bid to ask
  • Locked gap
  1. Chris HillCollin County Judge winner
    4.0¢84.5% a year · 18d

    Buy YES on Kalshi at 82¢ and NO on Polymarket at 14¢. That is 96¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 4, 2026: 4.0¢ locked, 84.5% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  2. Javier MileiArgentina presidential election winner
    4.0¢4.1% a year · 373d

    Buy YES on Polymarket at 48¢ and NO on Kalshi at 48¢. That is 96¢ for a $1 payout around Oct 25, 2027: 4.0¢ locked, 4.1% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  3. J.D. Vance2028 Republican presidential nominee
    3.8¢1.9% a year · 753d

    Buy YES on Kalshi at 43¢ and NO on Polymarket at 53.2¢. That is 96.2¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 8, 2028: 3.8¢ locked, 1.9% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  4. François HollandeNext French presidential election winner
    3.8¢7.8% a year · 184d

    Buy YES on Polymarket at 2.2¢ and NO on Kalshi at 94¢. That is 96.2¢ for a $1 payout around Apr 19, 2027: 3.8¢ locked, 7.8% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  5. Marco Rubio2028 Republican presidential nominee
    3.5¢1.8% a year · 753d

    Buy YES on Polymarket at 13.5¢ and NO on Kalshi at 83¢. That is 96.5¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 8, 2028: 3.5¢ locked, 1.8% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  6. Chiang Wan-anTaipei mayoral election winner
    3.0¢26.3% a year · 43d

    Buy YES on Kalshi at 58¢ and NO on Polymarket at 39¢. That is 97¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 29, 2026: 3.0¢ locked, 26.3% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  7. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez2028 Democratic presidential nominee
    2.5¢1.2% a year · 753d

    Buy YES on Kalshi at 14¢ and NO on Polymarket at 83.5¢. That is 97.5¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 8, 2028: 2.5¢ locked, 1.2% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  8. John R. "Buster" BrownCollin County Judge winner
    2.0¢41.4% a year · 18d

    Buy YES on Polymarket at 14¢ and NO on Kalshi at 84¢. That is 98¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 4, 2026: 2.0¢ locked, 41.4% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  9. Control ResonantGame Awards: Best Game Direction
    2.0¢9.8% a year · 76d

    Buy YES on Polymarket at 8¢ and NO on Kalshi at 90¢. That is 98¢ for a $1 payout around Jan 1, 2027: 2.0¢ locked, 9.8% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  10. Mark Kelly2028 Democratic presidential nominee
    1.9¢0.9% a year · 753d

    Buy YES on Polymarket at 1.8¢ and NO on Kalshi at 96.3¢. That is 98.1¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 8, 2028: 1.9¢ locked, 0.9% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  11. Ron DeSantis2028 Republican presidential nominee
    1.5¢0.7% a year · 753d

    Buy YES on Polymarket at 2.6¢ and NO on Kalshi at 95.9¢. That is 98.5¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 8, 2028: 1.5¢ locked, 0.7% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  12. Michelle Obama2028 Democratic presidential nominee
    1.4¢0.7% a year · 753d

    Buy YES on Polymarket at 0.3¢ and NO on Kalshi at 98.3¢. That is 98.6¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 8, 2028: 1.4¢ locked, 0.7% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  13. San Francisco 49ers2027 Pro Football Champion
    1.3¢2.9% a year · 166d

    Buy YES on Polymarket at 12.7¢ and NO on Kalshi at 86¢. That is 98.7¢ for a $1 payout around Apr 1, 2027: 1.3¢ locked, 2.9% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  14. Gavin Newsom2028 Democratic presidential nominee
    1.3¢0.6% a year · 753d

    Buy YES on Kalshi at 14¢ and NO on Polymarket at 84.7¢. That is 98.7¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 8, 2028: 1.3¢ locked, 0.6% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  15. Christine LagardeNext French presidential election winner
    1.2¢2.4% a year · 184d

    Buy YES on Polymarket at 0.8¢ and NO on Kalshi at 98¢. That is 98.8¢ for a $1 payout around Apr 19, 2027: 1.2¢ locked, 2.4% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  16. Detroit Pistons2027 Pro Basketball Champion
    1.1¢1.6% a year · 257d

    Buy YES on Kalshi at 2¢ and NO on Polymarket at 96.9¢. That is 98.9¢ for a $1 payout around Jul 1, 2027: 1.1¢ locked, 1.6% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  17. Miami Heat2027 Pro Basketball Champion
    1.1¢1.6% a year · 257d

    Buy YES on Polymarket at 3.9¢ and NO on Kalshi at 95¢. That is 98.9¢ for a $1 payout around Jul 1, 2027: 1.1¢ locked, 1.6% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  18. Jon Ossoff2028 Democratic presidential nominee
    1.1¢0.5% a year · 753d

    Buy YES on Kalshi at 13¢ and NO on Polymarket at 85.9¢. That is 98.9¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 8, 2028: 1.1¢ locked, 0.5% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  19. Luka MesecLjubljana mayoral election winner
    1.0¢12.3% a year · 30d

    Buy YES on Kalshi at 18¢ and NO on Polymarket at 81¢. That is 99¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 16, 2026: 1.0¢ locked, 12.3% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  20. Heather JeftsWilliamson County Judge winner
    1.0¢20.5% a year · 18d

    Buy YES on Kalshi at 67¢ and NO on Polymarket at 32¢. That is 99¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 4, 2026: 1.0¢ locked, 20.5% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  21. Gen.GWorlds 2026 Champion
    1.0¢8.6% a year · 43d

    Buy YES on Kalshi at 29¢ and NO on Polymarket at 70¢. That is 99¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 29, 2026: 1.0¢ locked, 8.6% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  22. Manchester CityEnglish Premier League Champion
    1.0¢1.6% a year · 225d

    Buy YES on Polymarket at 19¢ and NO on Kalshi at 80¢. That is 99¢ for a $1 payout around May 30, 2027: 1.0¢ locked, 1.6% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  23. Brian Kemp2028 Republican presidential nominee
    1.0¢0.5% a year · 753d

    Buy YES on Polymarket at 0.6¢ and NO on Kalshi at 98.4¢. That is 99¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 8, 2028: 1.0¢ locked, 0.5% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  24. Josh Shapiro2028 Democratic presidential nominee
    1.0¢0.5% a year · 753d

    Buy YES on Kalshi at 4.6¢ and NO on Polymarket at 94.4¢. That is 99¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 8, 2028: 1.0¢ locked, 0.5% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  25. Milwaukee BrewersPro Baseball Champion
    0.9¢23.7% a year · 14d

    Buy YES on Polymarket at 64.8¢ and NO on Kalshi at 34.3¢. That is 99.1¢ for a $1 payout around Oct 31, 2026: 0.9¢ locked, 23.7% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  26. Raphael Warnock2028 Democratic presidential nominee
    0.9¢0.4% a year · 753d

    Buy YES on Polymarket at 1.9¢ and NO on Kalshi at 97.2¢. That is 99.1¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 8, 2028: 0.9¢ locked, 0.4% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  27. Jordan BardellaNext French presidential election winner
    0.8¢1.6% a year · 184d

    Buy YES on Polymarket at 0.6¢ and NO on Kalshi at 98.6¢. That is 99.2¢ for a $1 payout around Apr 19, 2027: 0.8¢ locked, 1.6% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  28. Kamala Harris2028 Democratic presidential nominee
    0.7¢0.3% a year · 753d

    Buy YES on Polymarket at 7.1¢ and NO on Kalshi at 92.2¢. That is 99.3¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 8, 2028: 0.7¢ locked, 0.3% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  29. Bernie Sanders2028 Democratic presidential nominee
    0.7¢0.3% a year · 753d

    Buy YES on Kalshi at 0.5¢ and NO on Polymarket at 98.8¢. That is 99.3¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 8, 2028: 0.7¢ locked, 0.3% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  30. Sheldon CreedNASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series Champion
    0.6¢10.5% a year · 21d

    Buy YES on Kalshi at 18¢ and NO on Polymarket at 81.4¢. That is 99.4¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 7, 2026: 0.6¢ locked, 10.5% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  31. G2 EsportsWorlds 2026 Champion
    0.6¢5.1% a year · 43d

    Buy YES on Kalshi at 4¢ and NO on Polymarket at 95.4¢. That is 99.4¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 29, 2026: 0.6¢ locked, 5.1% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  32. Invictus GamingWorlds 2026 Champion
    0.6¢5.1% a year · 43d

    Buy YES on Kalshi at 2¢ and NO on Polymarket at 97.4¢. That is 99.4¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 29, 2026: 0.6¢ locked, 5.1% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  33. LYONWorlds 2026 Champion
    0.6¢5.1% a year · 43d

    Buy YES on Polymarket at 0.4¢ and NO on Kalshi at 99¢. That is 99.4¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 29, 2026: 0.6¢ locked, 5.1% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  34. Glenn Youngkin2028 Republican presidential nominee
    0.6¢0.3% a year · 753d

    Buy YES on Polymarket at 0.4¢ and NO on Kalshi at 99¢. That is 99.4¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 8, 2028: 0.6¢ locked, 0.3% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  35. Tampa Bay RaysPro Baseball Champion
    0.5¢13.1% a year · 14d

    Buy YES on Kalshi at 15.1¢ and NO on Polymarket at 84.4¢. That is 99.5¢ for a $1 payout around Oct 31, 2026: 0.5¢ locked, 13.1% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  36. Minnesota Timberwolves2027 Pro Basketball Champion
    0.4¢0.6% a year · 257d

    Buy YES on Polymarket at 6.6¢ and NO on Kalshi at 93¢. That is 99.6¢ for a $1 payout around Jul 1, 2027: 0.4¢ locked, 0.6% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  37. Toronto Raptors2027 Pro Basketball Champion
    0.4¢0.6% a year · 257d

    Buy YES on Kalshi at 3¢ and NO on Polymarket at 96.6¢. That is 99.6¢ for a $1 payout around Jul 1, 2027: 0.4¢ locked, 0.6% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  38. David LisnardNext French presidential election winner
    0.4¢0.8% a year · 184d

    Buy YES on Polymarket at 11.6¢ and NO on Kalshi at 88¢. That is 99.6¢ for a $1 payout around Apr 19, 2027: 0.4¢ locked, 0.8% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  39. Team LiquidWorlds 2026 Champion
    0.3¢2.6% a year · 43d

    Buy YES on Polymarket at 0.7¢ and NO on Kalshi at 99¢. That is 99.7¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 29, 2026: 0.3¢ locked, 2.6% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  40. Cleveland GuardiansPro Baseball Champion
    0.3¢7.8% a year · 14d

    Buy YES on Polymarket at 19.7¢ and NO on Kalshi at 80¢. That is 99.7¢ for a $1 payout around Oct 31, 2026: 0.3¢ locked, 7.8% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  41. Tucker Carlson2028 Republican presidential nominee
    0.3¢0.1% a year · 753d

    Buy YES on Kalshi at 2.7¢ and NO on Polymarket at 97¢. That is 99.7¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 8, 2028: 0.3¢ locked, 0.1% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  42. Dplus KIAWorlds 2026 Champion
    0.2¢1.7% a year · 43d

    Buy YES on Kalshi at 5¢ and NO on Polymarket at 94.8¢. That is 99.8¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 29, 2026: 0.2¢ locked, 1.7% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  43. Jonathan Kreiss-TomkinsAlaska Governor winner
    0.2¢4.1% a year · 18d

    Buy YES on Polymarket at 78.8¢ and NO on Kalshi at 21¢. That is 99.8¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 4, 2026: 0.2¢ locked, 4.1% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  44. Lamine YamalWho will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026
    0.2¢1.0% a year · 76d

    Buy YES on Polymarket at 27.8¢ and NO on Kalshi at 72¢. That is 99.8¢ for a $1 payout around Jan 1, 2027: 0.2¢ locked, 1.0% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  45. Marine Le PenNext French presidential election winner
    0.2¢0.4% a year · 184d

    Buy YES on Polymarket at 45.8¢ and NO on Kalshi at 54¢. That is 99.8¢ for a $1 payout around Apr 19, 2027: 0.2¢ locked, 0.4% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  46. Gretchen Whitmer2028 Democratic presidential nominee
    0.2¢0.1% a year · 753d

    Buy YES on Polymarket at 0.6¢ and NO on Kalshi at 99.2¢. That is 99.8¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 8, 2028: 0.2¢ locked, 0.1% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  47. Harry KaneWho will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026
    0.1¢0.5% a year · 76d

    Buy YES on Kalshi at 64¢ and NO on Polymarket at 35.9¢. That is 99.9¢ for a $1 payout around Jan 1, 2027: 0.1¢ locked, 0.5% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  48. Carolina Panthers2027 Pro Football Champion
    0.1¢0.2% a year · 166d

    Buy YES on Kalshi at 1¢ and NO on Polymarket at 98.9¢. That is 99.9¢ for a $1 payout around Apr 1, 2027: 0.1¢ locked, 0.2% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  49. Xavier BecerraCalifornia Governor winner
    0.1¢2.0% a year · 18d

    Buy YES on Polymarket at 95.8¢ and NO on Kalshi at 4.1¢. That is 99.9¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 4, 2026: 0.1¢ locked, 2.0% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  50. Ro Khanna2028 Democratic presidential nominee
    0.1¢0.0% a year · 753d

    Buy YES on Polymarket at 1.5¢ and NO on Kalshi at 98.4¢. That is 99.9¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 8, 2028: 0.1¢ locked, 0.0% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  51. James Talarico2028 Democratic presidential nominee
    0.1¢0.0% a year · 753d

    Buy YES on Polymarket at 2.7¢ and NO on Kalshi at 97.2¢. That is 99.9¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 8, 2028: 0.1¢ locked, 0.0% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  52. Bruno RetailleauNext French presidential election winner
    0.1¢0.2% a year · 184d

    Buy YES on Polymarket at 0.8¢ and NO on Kalshi at 99.1¢. That is 99.9¢ for a $1 payout around Apr 19, 2027: 0.1¢ locked, 0.2% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

  53. Mike Pence2028 Republican presidential nominee
    0.1¢0.0% a year · 753d

    Buy YES on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and NO on Kalshi at 99.7¢. That is 99.9¢ for a $1 payout around Nov 8, 2028: 0.1¢ locked, 0.0% a year before fees. Kalshi · Polymarket

OutcomeKalshi bid / askPolymarket bid / askMidpoint gapLocked gap
Chris Hill
Collin County Judge winner · Kalshi · Polymarket
 79¢ / 82¢ 86.0¢ / 88.0¢ 6.5pp 4.0¢
84.5% a year, 18 days
Javier Milei
Argentina presidential election winner · Kalshi · Polymarket
 52¢ / 53¢ 47.0¢ / 48.0¢ 5.0pp 4.0¢
4.1% a year, 373 days
J.D. Vance
2028 Republican presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket
 42¢ / 43¢ 46.8¢ / 48.1¢ 5.0pp 3.8¢
1.9% a year, 753 days
François Hollande
Next French presidential election winner · Kalshi · Polymarket
 6¢ / 7¢ 2.1¢ / 2.2¢ 4.4pp 3.8¢
7.8% a year, 184 days
Marco Rubio
2028 Republican presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket
 17¢ / 18¢ 13.4¢ / 13.5¢ 4.0pp 3.5¢
1.8% a year, 753 days
Chiang Wan-an
Taipei mayoral election winner · Kalshi · Polymarket
 57¢ / 58¢ 61.0¢ / 62.0¢ 4.0pp 3.0¢
26.3% a year, 43 days
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
2028 Democratic presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket
 13¢ / 14¢ 16.5¢ / 16.6¢ 3.0pp 2.5¢
1.2% a year, 753 days
John R. "Buster" Brown
Collin County Judge winner · Kalshi · Polymarket
 16¢ / 21¢ 13.0¢ / 14.0¢ 5.0pp 2.0¢
41.4% a year, 18 days
Control Resonant
Game Awards: Best Game Direction · Kalshi · Polymarket
 10¢ / 11¢ 3.1¢ / 8.0¢ 5.0pp 2.0¢
9.8% a year, 76 days
Mark Kelly
2028 Democratic presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket
 4¢ / 4¢ 1.7¢ / 1.8¢ 2.0pp 1.9¢
0.9% a year, 753 days
Ron DeSantis
2028 Republican presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket
 4¢ / 4¢ 2.5¢ / 2.6¢ 1.6pp 1.5¢
0.7% a year, 753 days
Michelle Obama
2028 Democratic presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket
 2¢ / 2¢ 0.2¢ / 0.3¢ 1.6pp 1.4¢
0.7% a year, 753 days
San Francisco 49ers
2027 Pro Football Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 14¢ / 15¢ 12.6¢ / 12.7¢ 1.9pp 1.3¢
2.9% a year, 166 days
Gavin Newsom
2028 Democratic presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket
 13¢ / 14¢ 15.3¢ / 15.4¢ 1.8pp 1.3¢
0.6% a year, 753 days
Christine Lagarde
Next French presidential election winner · Kalshi · Polymarket
 2¢ / 3¢ 0.7¢ / 0.8¢ 1.8pp 1.2¢
2.4% a year, 184 days
Detroit Pistons
2027 Pro Basketball Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 1¢ / 2¢ 3.1¢ / 3.2¢ 1.7pp 1.1¢
1.6% a year, 257 days
Miami Heat
2027 Pro Basketball Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 5¢ / 6¢ 3.8¢ / 3.9¢ 1.7pp 1.1¢
1.6% a year, 257 days
Jon Ossoff
2028 Democratic presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket
 12¢ / 13¢ 14.1¢ / 14.2¢ 1.6pp 1.1¢
0.5% a year, 753 days
Luka Mesec
Ljubljana mayoral election winner · Kalshi · Polymarket
 13¢ / 18¢ 19.0¢ / 20.0¢ 4.0pp 1.0¢
12.3% a year, 30 days
Heather Jefts
Williamson County Judge winner · Kalshi · Polymarket
 63¢ / 67¢ 68.0¢ / 69.0¢ 3.5pp 1.0¢
20.5% a year, 18 days
Gen.G
Worlds 2026 Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 28¢ / 29¢ 30.0¢ / 31.0¢ 2.0pp 1.0¢
8.6% a year, 43 days
Manchester City
English Premier League Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 20¢ / 21¢ 18.0¢ / 19.0¢ 2.0pp 1.0¢
1.6% a year, 225 days
Brian Kemp
2028 Republican presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket
 2¢ / 2¢ 0.5¢ / 0.6¢ 1.1pp 1.0¢
0.5% a year, 753 days
Josh Shapiro
2028 Democratic presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket
 4¢ / 5¢ 5.6¢ / 5.7¢ 1.1pp 1.0¢
0.5% a year, 753 days
Milwaukee Brewers
Pro Baseball Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 66¢ / 66¢ 64.6¢ / 64.8¢ 1.0pp 0.9¢
23.7% a year, 14 days
Raphael Warnock
2028 Democratic presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket
 3¢ / 3¢ 1.8¢ / 1.9¢ 1.0pp 0.9¢
0.4% a year, 753 days
Jordan Bardella
Next French presidential election winner · Kalshi · Polymarket
 1¢ / 2¢ 0.5¢ / 0.6¢ 0.9pp 0.8¢
1.6% a year, 184 days
Kamala Harris
2028 Democratic presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket
 8¢ / 8¢ 6.8¢ / 7.1¢ 1.0pp 0.7¢
0.3% a year, 753 days
Bernie Sanders
2028 Democratic presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 0¢ 1.2¢ / 1.6¢ 0.9pp 0.7¢
0.3% a year, 753 days
Sheldon Creed
NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 17¢ / 18¢ 18.6¢ / 27.8¢ 5.7pp 0.6¢
10.5% a year, 21 days
G2 Esports
Worlds 2026 Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 3¢ / 4¢ 4.6¢ / 4.9¢ 1.2pp 0.6¢
5.1% a year, 43 days
Invictus Gaming
Worlds 2026 Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 1¢ / 2¢ 2.6¢ / 2.8¢ 1.2pp 0.6¢
5.1% a year, 43 days
LYON
Worlds 2026 Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 1¢ / 2¢ 0.3¢ / 0.4¢ 1.1pp 0.6¢
5.1% a year, 43 days
Glenn Youngkin
2028 Republican presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket
 1¢ / 1¢ 0.3¢ / 0.4¢ 0.7pp 0.6¢
0.3% a year, 753 days
Tampa Bay Rays
Pro Baseball Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 15¢ / 15¢ 15.6¢ / 15.7¢ 0.8pp 0.5¢
13.1% a year, 14 days
Minnesota Timberwolves
2027 Pro Basketball Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 7¢ / 8¢ 6.5¢ / 6.6¢ 1.0pp 0.4¢
0.6% a year, 257 days
Toronto Raptors
2027 Pro Basketball Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 2¢ / 3¢ 3.4¢ / 3.5¢ 1.0pp 0.4¢
0.6% a year, 257 days
David Lisnard
Next French presidential election winner · Kalshi · Polymarket
 12¢ / 13¢ 11.5¢ / 11.6¢ 0.9pp 0.4¢
0.8% a year, 184 days
Team Liquid
Worlds 2026 Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 1¢ / 2¢ 0.6¢ / 0.7¢ 0.8pp 0.3¢
2.6% a year, 43 days
Cleveland Guardians
Pro Baseball Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 20¢ / 20¢ 19.6¢ / 19.7¢ 0.6pp 0.3¢
7.8% a year, 14 days
Tucker Carlson
2028 Republican presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket
 3¢ / 3¢ 3.0¢ / 3.1¢ 0.4pp 0.3¢
0.1% a year, 753 days
Dplus KIA
Worlds 2026 Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 4¢ / 5¢ 5.2¢ / 5.9¢ 1.0pp 0.2¢
1.7% a year, 43 days
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins
Alaska Governor winner · Kalshi · Polymarket
 79¢ / 80¢ 78.3¢ / 78.8¢ 0.9pp 0.2¢
4.1% a year, 18 days
Lamine Yamal
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026 · Kalshi · Polymarket
 28¢ / 29¢ 27.7¢ / 27.8¢ 0.8pp 0.2¢
1.0% a year, 76 days
Marine Le Pen
Next French presidential election winner · Kalshi · Polymarket
 46¢ / 47¢ 45.7¢ / 45.8¢ 0.7pp 0.2¢
0.4% a year, 184 days
Gretchen Whitmer
2028 Democratic presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket
 1¢ / 1¢ 0.5¢ / 0.6¢ 0.3pp 0.2¢
0.1% a year, 753 days
Harry Kane
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026 · Kalshi · Polymarket
 63¢ / 64¢ 64.1¢ / 64.3¢ 0.7pp 0.1¢
0.5% a year, 76 days
Carolina Panthers
2027 Pro Football Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 1¢ 1.1¢ / 1.2¢ 0.7pp 0.1¢
0.2% a year, 166 days
Xavier Becerra
California Governor winner · Kalshi · Polymarket
 96¢ / 96¢ 95.7¢ / 95.8¢ 0.4pp 0.1¢
2.0% a year, 18 days
Ro Khanna
2028 Democratic presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket
 2¢ / 2¢ 1.3¢ / 1.5¢ 0.3pp 0.1¢
0.0% a year, 753 days
James Talarico
2028 Democratic presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket
 3¢ / 3¢ 2.6¢ / 2.7¢ 0.2pp 0.1¢
0.0% a year, 753 days
Bruno Retailleau
Next French presidential election winner · Kalshi · Polymarket
 1¢ / 1¢ 0.7¢ / 0.8¢ 0.2pp 0.1¢
0.2% a year, 184 days
Mike Pence
2028 Republican presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 0¢ 0.1¢ / 0.2¢ 0.2pp 0.1¢
0.0% a year, 753 days
Lee Shu-chuan
New Taipei mayoral election winner · Kalshi · Polymarket
 42¢ / 48¢ 40.0¢ / 42.0¢ 4.0pp none
Su Chiao-hui
New Taipei mayoral election winner · Kalshi · Polymarket
 51¢ / 54¢ 54.0¢ / 57.0¢ 3.0pp none
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
Next French presidential election winner · Kalshi · Polymarket
 10¢ / 11¢ 11.0¢ / 12.0¢ 1.0pp none
Édouard Philippe
Next French presidential election winner · Kalshi · Polymarket
 16¢ / 17¢ 17.0¢ / 18.0¢ 1.0pp none
Hanwha Life Esports
Worlds 2026 Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 17¢ / 18¢ 18.0¢ / 19.0¢ 1.0pp none
Bilibili Gaming
Worlds 2026 Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 16¢ / 17¢ 17.0¢ / 18.0¢ 1.0pp none
Arsenal
English Premier League Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 62¢ / 63¢ 63.0¢ / 64.0¢ 1.0pp none
Anyone's Legend
Worlds 2026 Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 5¢ / 6¢ 4.8¢ / 5.0¢ 0.6pp none
Gabriel Attal
Next French presidential election winner · Kalshi · Polymarket
 1¢ / 2¢ 1.5¢ / 2.1¢ 0.4pp none
Dominique de Villepin
Next French presidential election winner · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 0¢ 0.4¢ / 0.6¢ 0.2pp none
Ruben Gallego
2028 Democratic presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 0¢ 0.2¢ / 0.4¢ 0.2pp none
Ivanka Trump
2028 Republican presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket
 1¢ / 1¢ 0.9¢ / 1.1¢ 0.2pp none
Pete Buttigieg
2028 Democratic presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket
 5¢ / 5¢ 4.9¢ / 5.2¢ 0.2pp none
Sarah Knafo
Next French presidential election winner · Kalshi · Polymarket
 1¢ / 1¢ 0.8¢ / 0.9¢ 0.1pp none
François Ruffin
Next French presidential election winner · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 0¢ 0.1¢ / 0.2¢ 0.1pp none
Sébastien Lecornu
Next French presidential election winner · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 0¢ 0.2¢ / 0.3¢ 0.1pp none
Gina Raimondo
2028 Democratic presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 0¢ 0.1¢ / 0.2¢ 0.1pp none
LeBron James
2028 Democratic presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 0¢ 0.1¢ / 0.2¢ 0.1pp none
Hunter Biden
2028 Democratic presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 0¢ 0.2¢ / 0.3¢ 0.1pp none
Lionel Messi
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026 · Kalshi · Polymarket
 3¢ / 4¢ 3.0¢ / 3.1¢ 0.5pp none
Indiana Pacers
2027 Pro Basketball Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 2¢ / 3¢ 2.0¢ / 2.1¢ 0.5pp none
Atlanta Falcons
2027 Pro Football Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 1¢ / 2¢ 1.0¢ / 1.1¢ 0.5pp none
Golden State Warriors
2027 Pro Basketball Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 1¢ / 2¢ 1.0¢ / 1.1¢ 0.5pp none
Elon Musk
2028 Republican presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 0¢ 0.1¢ / 0.2¢ 0.1pp none
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
2028 Republican presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 0¢ 0.2¢ / 0.4¢ 0.1pp none
Barack Obama
2028 Democratic presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 0¢ 0.1¢ / 0.2¢ 0.1pp none
Pete Hegseth
2028 Republican presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 0¢ 0.3¢ / 0.5¢ 0.1pp none
Éric Zemmour
Next French presidential election winner · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 0¢ 0.4¢ / 0.5¢ 0.0pp none
Jean Castex
Next French presidential election winner · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 0¢ 0.1¢ / 0.2¢ 0.0pp none
Cory Booker
2028 Democratic presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket
 1¢ / 1¢ 0.6¢ / 0.7¢ 0.0pp none
Top Esports
Worlds 2026 Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 1¢ / 2¢ 0.7¢ / 1.2¢ 0.5pp none
Bournemouth
English Premier League Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 1¢ 0.1¢ / 0.2¢ 0.4pp none
John N. Kennedy
2028 Republican presidential nominee · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 1¢ 0.1¢ / 0.2¢ 0.4pp none
Erling Haaland
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026 · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 1¢ 0.1¢ / 0.2¢ 0.4pp none
Team Secret Whales
Worlds 2026 Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 1¢ 0.1¢ / 0.2¢ 0.4pp none
Washington Wizards
2027 Pro Basketball Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 1¢ 0.8¢ / 0.9¢ 0.4pp none
Movistar KOI
Worlds 2026 Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 1¢ 0.1¢ / 0.2¢ 0.4pp none
Leeds United
English Premier League Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 1¢ 0.1¢ / 0.2¢ 0.4pp none
Orlando Magic
2027 Pro Basketball Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 1¢ 0.8¢ / 0.9¢ 0.4pp none
Milwaukee Bucks
2027 Pro Basketball Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 1¢ 0.1¢ / 0.2¢ 0.4pp none
CTBC Flying Oyster
Worlds 2026 Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 1¢ 0.1¢ / 0.2¢ 0.4pp none
Ousmane Dembélé
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026 · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 1¢ 0.2¢ / 0.3¢ 0.2pp none
Michael Olise
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026 · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 1¢ 0.2¢ / 0.3¢ 0.2pp none
Karmine Corp
Worlds 2026 Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 1¢ 0.7¢ / 0.8¢ 0.2pp none
Newcastle United
English Premier League Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 1¢ 0.2¢ / 0.3¢ 0.2pp none
Kylian Mbappé
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026 · Kalshi · Polymarket
 4¢ / 5¢ 4.3¢ / 4.4¢ 0.2pp none
Houston Rockets
2027 Pro Basketball Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 2¢ / 3¢ 2.6¢ / 2.8¢ 0.2pp none
Las Vegas Raiders
2027 Pro Football Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 1¢ 0.6¢ / 0.7¢ 0.2pp none
Liverpool
English Premier League Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 3¢ / 4¢ 3.3¢ / 3.4¢ 0.2pp none
New York Giants
2027 Pro Football Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 1¢ 0.6¢ / 0.7¢ 0.2pp none
Cleveland Browns
2027 Pro Football Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 1¢ 0.3¢ / 0.4¢ 0.1pp none
Los Angeles Lakers
2027 Pro Basketball Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 3¢ / 4¢ 2.8¢ / 3.5¢ 0.4pp none
Genoa
Serie A Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 1¢ 0.1¢ / 0.5¢ 0.2pp none
Raphaël Glucksmann
Next French presidential election winner · Kalshi · Polymarket
 3¢ / 4¢ 3.3¢ / 3.5¢ 0.1pp none
New England Patriots
2027 Pro Football Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 3¢ / 4¢ 3.4¢ / 3.5¢ 0.1pp none
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026 · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 1¢ 0.4¢ / 0.5¢ 0.0pp none
Rodri
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026 · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 1¢ 0.4¢ / 0.5¢ 0.0pp none
Brentford
English Premier League Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 1¢ 0.4¢ / 0.5¢ 0.0pp none
Steve Hilton
California Governor winner · Kalshi · Polymarket
 3¢ / 5¢ 3.9¢ / 4.0¢ 0.1pp none
Hull City
English Premier League Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 1¢ 0.4¢ / 0.6¢ 0.0pp none
Frosinone
Serie A Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 1¢ 0.3¢ / 1.5¢ 0.4pp none
Sergio Massa
Argentina presidential election winner · Kalshi · Polymarket
 9¢ / 15¢ 14.2¢ / 15.4¢ 2.7pp none
Bologna
Serie A Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 0¢ / 1¢ 0.2¢ / 2.2¢ 0.7pp none
Brad Bradford
Toronto mayoral election winner · Kalshi · Polymarket
 23¢ / 27¢ 26.0¢ / 27.0¢ 1.5pp none
Olivia Chow
Toronto mayoral election winner · Kalshi · Polymarket
 74¢ / 76¢ 73.0¢ / 75.0¢ 1.0pp none
T1
Worlds 2026 Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 16¢ / 17¢ 16.0¢ / 17.0¢ 0.0pp none
Los Angeles Rams
2027 Pro Football Champion · Kalshi · Polymarket
 10¢ / 11¢ 10.0¢ / 11.0¢ 0.0pp none

How to read the two gap columns

Midpoint gap is the distance between the middle of each exchange's bid and ask. It tells you how much the two crowds disagree, not what you could trade.

Locked gap is what is left if you buy YES where it is cheaper and NO on the other exchange, paying each ask. It is the highest bid on one exchange minus the lowest ask on the other. When that is above zero, the two positions together cost less than the $1 one of them must pay. 53 of today's 121 pairs show one. The yearly figure beside it spreads that gain over the days until the question resolves, because money tied up until 2028 is not the same as money back next month. Both figures are before exchange fees, and a gap this size can vanish before a second order fills.

How a pair gets on this page

We only pair markets whose identity we can check. Polymarket has to ask whether a named person or team will win a named contest. Kalshi has to list a who-wins event for that same contest and year, with exactly one open market carrying that name. Events about margins, vote share, who advances or who will run are rejected even when the wording looks close. We also drop pairs where either bid and ask are more than 10 cents apart, where the contest ends within three days, or where the two midpoints differ by more than 25 points, since a gap that large almost always means two different questions.

This replaces an earlier version of this page that matched markets by similar wording and listed pairs that were not the same event.

This is not trading advice. The two exchanges can word their resolution rules differently for the same contest, so read both rule pages before acting. Check which exchanges you are allowed to use where you live.

Get new posts in your inbox. No spam, unsubscribe anytime.