Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been publi
Reading the odds on this market
At 11.5¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 11.5% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 9.
$10 on YES buys about 87 contracts that pay $86.96 if it happens; $10 on NO at 88.5¢ buys about 11.3 that pay $11.30 if it does not.
The favoured side, NO, returns 13.0% if it wins, with the money locked up for 75 days until December 31, 2026; that works out to about 81.2% a year.
$13 has traded on it on Limitless, making it number 328 by volume of the 377 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 11¢ means the market is pricing in a 11.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($13) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($0) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Limitless. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 1¢ | $54,891,766 |
| Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 1¢ | $54,439,768 |
| Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 1¢ | $52,913,183 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been publi
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-12-31, 75 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 11¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 88¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 11¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 11.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Limitless. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $13 in total traded volume and $0 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.