US Government removes public access to another Anthropic AI model in 2026?
Prices are mid-market at the last refresh. The gap is what the other venue pays for the same outcome; the Divergence Index tracks these gaps every day.
What resolves this contract
This market resolves "Yes" if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action that has the effect of generally removing public access within the US to an Anthropic AI model, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No". A qualifying action is a formal US government action that has the effect of a general removal of public access to a previously publicly available Anthropic AI model within the US. Such an action qualifies, regardless of its stated purpose or no
Reading the odds on this market
At 9.0¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 9.0% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 11.
$10 on YES buys about 111 contracts that pay $111.11 if it happens; $10 on NO at 91.0¢ buys about 11.0 that pay $10.99 if it does not.
The favoured side, NO, returns 9.9% if it wins, with the money locked up for 68 days until January 1, 2027; that works out to about 65.9% a year.
$11 has traded on it on Limitless, making it number 345 by volume of the 384 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 9¢ means the market is pricing in a 9.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($11) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($0) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Limitless. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | 95¢ | $18,808,041 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | 11¢ | $15,502,246 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | 4¢ | $14,516,559 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market resolves "Yes" if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action that has the effect of generally removing public access within the US to an Anthropic AI model, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No". A qualifying action is a formal US government action that has the effect of a general removal of public access to a previously publicly available Anthropic AI model within the US. Such an action qualifies, regardless of its stated purpose or no
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2027-01-01, 68 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 9¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 91¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 9¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 9.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Limitless. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $11 in total traded volume and $0 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.