Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been pub
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 72¢ means the market is pricing in a 72.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($958,056) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($209,853) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? | 3¢ | $997,364 |
| Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | 1¢ | $996,681 |
| Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | 1¢ | $988,851 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been pub
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-12-31, 203 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 72¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 28¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 72¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 72.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $958,056 in total traded volume and $209,853 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.