How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026: 35%?
No other exchange lists this exact question right now. The Divergence Index shows the questions that trade on two or three venues at once.
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin , specifically the ap
Reading the odds on this market
At 26.5¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 26.5% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 4.
$10 on YES buys about 38 contracts that pay $37.74 if it happens; $10 on NO at 73.5¢ buys about 13.6 that pay $13.61 if it does not.
$3 has traded on it on Limitless, making it number 364 by volume of the 377 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 26¢ means the market is pricing in a 26.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($3) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($0) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Limitless. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 1¢ | $54,890,727 |
| Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 1¢ | $54,443,126 |
| Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 1¢ | $52,921,302 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin , specifically the ap
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2027-01-04, 72 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 26¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 74¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 26¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 26.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Limitless. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $3 in total traded volume and $0 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.