Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to “Yes” if MicroStrategy Incorporated or Michael Saylor officially announce that the company’s total Bitcoin holdings are equal to or greater than the number specified in the title at any point by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor as to their total BTC holdings. For reference, MicroStrategy’s reported BTC holdings can be tracked at: https://www.strategy.com/purchases
Reading the odds on this market
At 6.5¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 6.5% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 15.
$10 on YES buys about 154 contracts that pay $153.85 if it happens; $10 on NO at 93.5¢ buys about 10.7 that pay $10.70 if it does not.
The favoured side, NO, returns 7.0% if it wins, with the money locked up for 76 days until January 1, 2027; that works out to about 38.1% a year.
$242 has traded on it on Limitless, making it number 270 by volume of the 377 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 6¢ means the market is pricing in a 6.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($242) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($0) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Limitless. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | 11¢ | $14,981,748 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | 86¢ | $13,357,262 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | 13¢ | $10,175,254 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if MicroStrategy Incorporated or Michael Saylor officially announce that the company’s total Bitcoin holdings are equal to or greater than the number specified in the title at any point by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor as to their total BTC holdings. For reference, MicroStrategy’s reported BTC holdings can be tracked at: https://www.strategy.com/purchases
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2027-01-01, 76 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 6¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 94¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 6¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 6.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Limitless. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $242 in total traded volume and $0 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.