U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. - Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models. - Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training. - Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as intera
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 26¢ means the market is pricing in a 26.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($97,705) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($11,309) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | 14¢ | $9,686,275 |
| Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | 1¢ | $9,654,760 |
| Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | 1¢ | $9,526,732 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. - Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models. - Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training. - Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as intera
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-12-31, 244 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 26¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 74¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 26¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 26.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $97,705 in total traded volume and $11,309 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.