Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Reading the odds on this market
At 15.5¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 15.5% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 6.
$10 on YES buys about 65 contracts that pay $64.52 if it happens; $10 on NO at 84.5¢ buys about 11.8 that pay $11.83 if it does not.
$71,872,235 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $1,079,372 still riding on the outcome, making it number 1 by volume of the 201 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 15¢ means the market is pricing in a 15.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($71,872,235) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($1,079,372) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | 2¢ | $43,588,983 |
| Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | 1¢ | $32,790,733 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | 6¢ | $26,720,139 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2027-01-01, 88 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 15¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 84¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 15¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 15.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $71,872,235 in total traded volume and $1,079,372 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.