Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting wi
Reading the odds on this market
At 2.5¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 2.5% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 41.
$10 on YES buys about 408 contracts that pay $408.16 if it happens; $10 on NO at 97.5¢ buys about 10.3 that pay $10.25 if it does not.
The favoured side, NO, returns 2.5% if it wins, with the money locked up for 88 days until January 1, 2027; that works out to about 10.8% a year.
$43,588,983 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $664,697 still riding on the outcome, making it number 15 by volume of the 201 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 2¢ means the market is pricing in a 2.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($43,588,983) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($664,697) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 15¢ | $71,872,235 |
| Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | 1¢ | $32,790,733 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | 6¢ | $26,720,139 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting wi
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2027-01-01, 88 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 2¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 98¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 2¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 2.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $43,588,983 in total traded volume and $664,697 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.