How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027: Below 4.50%?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed und
Reading the odds on this market
At 27.3¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 27.3% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 4.
$10 on YES buys about 37 contracts that pay $36.70 if it happens; $10 on NO at 72.8¢ buys about 13.7 that pay $13.75 if it does not.
$35 has traded on it on Limitless, making it number 310 by volume of the 377 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 27¢ means the market is pricing in a 27.3% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($35) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($0) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Limitless. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | 5¢ | $24,087,396 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | 4¢ | $8,674,940 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? | 10¢ | $6,791,277 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed und
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-12-31, 75 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 27¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 73¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 27¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 27.3% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Limitless. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $35 in total traded volume and $0 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.