Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, ceases to be the de facto leader of Bahrain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Bahrain if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Bahrain within this market's timeframe. An announcement of Khalifa's resignation or abdication will qualify for a "Yes" resolution r
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 7¢ means the market is pricing in a 7.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($95,858) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($23,948) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? | 2¢ | $982,436 |
| Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? | 20¢ | $973,368 |
| Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? | 1¢ | $962,318 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, ceases to be the de facto leader of Bahrain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Bahrain if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Bahrain within this market's timeframe. An announcement of Khalifa's resignation or abdication will qualify for a "Yes" resolution r
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-12-31, 176 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 7¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 92¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 7¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 7.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $95,858 in total traded volume and $23,948 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.