Today's NOAA screen flags three Kalshi temperature markets for October 22, each showing a 75-point edge. On closer reading, the claim falls apart. The 72-73° bucket trades at 54¢, the 74-75° bucket at 20¢, and the 68-69° bucket, a longshot, at 3¢. All three carry the same 77% model probability, but they are mutually exclusive outcomes. The high temperature cannot land in all of them.
The likely explanation is that 77% describes a broader range, not each bucket. The three prices add up to exactly 77¢, which suggests the market and the model may largely agree. An identical edge across exclusive outcomes should prompt a check of the data before any trade. All three close in 1 day, so there is little time to sort it out.
The volume table needs similar care. "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" leads tracked markets with $74.9 million traded at 16¢, closing in 71 days. Most of the other high-volume markets are longshots priced at 1¢, including LeBron James winning the 2028 presidency, which closes in 748 days. Heavy trading on a 1¢ contract shows attention and capital locked up.