The single largest pool of money in our tracker right now sits on "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" on Polymarket, with $74.4 million traded and the contract priced at 15¢. That price implies traders see roughly a one-in-seven chance of an invasion with 76 days left before the market closes.
What makes that number worth attention is the company it keeps. The next four markets by volume are all longshots priced at 1¢: Jesus Christ returning before 2027, LeBron James winning the 2028 presidency, and Oprah Winfrey or Bernie Sanders taking the 2028 Democratic nomination. Each has drawn more than $52 million, yet none is a serious contender. High volume on these contracts reflects long-dated liquidity and novelty.
That contrast is the useful signal. Among the five heaviest-traded markets, Iran is the only one where the price carries real information. A 15¢ contract with 76 days to run can move sharply on a single headline, while the 2028 longshots, with 753 days remaining, will mostly sit still.