economy

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

PlatformPolymarket Expires2026-12-31 Volume$9,555,766 Open Interest$152,270
YES
16¢
Implied probability: 16.5%
NO
83¢
Implied probability: 83.5%
30-DAY PROBABILITY HISTORY Low 16¢ · High 16¢ · Δ +0.0pp
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YES Price
16¢
NO Price
83¢
Total Volume
$9,555,766
Open Interest
$152,270
Expiration
2026-12-31
Days Left
256
About this market

What resolves this contract

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States acquires control of any land territory that is part of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only the transfer of sovereignty, or the acquisition of primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control qualifies. 1. Transfer of Sovereignty: This will qualify if a binding agreement or legal instrument results in a defined area of Greenland coming under the formal sovereignty of the U.S. (e.g., incorporated as a U.S. state, territory, possession, or other U.S. political classification), even if t

How to read the price

Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 16¢ means the market is pricing in a 16.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.

Volume vs. open interest

Total traded volume ($9,555,766) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($152,270) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.

Where to trade this market

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.

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FAQ

Common questions about this market

How is this market resolved?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States acquires control of any land territory that is part of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only the transfer of sovereignty, or the acquisition of primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control qualifies. 1. Transfer of Sovereignty: This will qualify if a binding agreement or legal instrument results in a defined area of Greenland coming under the formal sovereignty of the U.S. (e.g., incorporated as a U.S. state, territory, possession, or other U.S. political classification), even if t

When does this contract expire?

This contract closes on 2026-12-31, 256 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).

What happens if I buy YES at 16¢?

If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 — a profit of 84¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 16¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 16.5% probability of YES.

Where is this market listed?

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.

How reliable is the quoted price?

This market has $9,555,766 in total traded volume and $152,270 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.

Disclaimer: Prediction market data on this page is sourced from public order books. Prices change continuously; figures shown here reflect the last refresh at 2026-04-19. Nothing on this page constitutes investment or betting advice.