Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
No other exchange lists this exact question right now. The Divergence Index shows the questions that trade on two or three venues at once.
What resolves this contract
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral
Reading the odds on this market
At 19.5¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 19.5% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 5.
$10 on YES buys about 51 contracts that pay $51.28 if it happens; $10 on NO at 80.5¢ buys about 12.4 that pay $12.42 if it does not.
Over the last 22 daily readings the YES price moved up 4.5 points, trading between 10.5¢ and 23.5¢.
$31,260,116 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $387,981 still riding on the outcome, making it number 29 by volume of the 318 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 19¢ means the market is pricing in a 19.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($31,260,116) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($387,981) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 19¢ | $75,356,142 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | 2¢ | $44,962,740 |
| Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | 1¢ | $32,812,820 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-10-26, 1 day from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 19¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 80¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 19¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 19.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $31,260,116 in total traded volume and $387,981 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.