Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
No other exchange lists this exact question right now. The Divergence Index shows the questions that trade on two or three venues at once.
What resolves this contract
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose candidate list received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that resu
Reading the odds on this market
At 98.8¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 98.8% chance this happens, roughly 79.0 to 1 in favour.
$10 on YES buys about 10 contracts that pay $10.13 if it happens; $10 on NO at 1.2¢ buys about 800.0 that pay $800.00 if it does not.
The favoured side, YES, returns 1.3% if it wins, with the money locked up for 1 days until October 29, 2026; that works out to about 9761.8% a year.
$6,893,013 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $179,382 still riding on the outcome, making it number 52 by volume of the 394 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 98¢ means the market is pricing in a 98.8% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($6,893,013) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($179,382) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 18¢ | $75,623,065 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | 2¢ | $45,093,818 |
| Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | 1¢ | $32,812,820 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose candidate list received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that resu
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-10-28, 1 day from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 98¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 1¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 98¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 98.8% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $6,893,013 in total traded volume and $179,382 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.