US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
Prices are mid-market at the last refresh. The gap is what the other venue pays for the same outcome; the Divergence Index tracks these gaps every day.
What resolves this contract
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United
Reading the odds on this market
At 7.0¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 7.0% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 14.
$10 on YES buys about 143 contracts that pay $142.86 if it happens; $10 on NO at 93.0¢ buys about 10.8 that pay $10.75 if it does not.
The favoured side, NO, returns 7.5% if it wins, with the money locked up for 8 days until November 2, 2026; that works out to about 2641.4% a year.
$5,952,066 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $83,197 still riding on the outcome, making it number 62 by volume of the 382 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 7¢ means the market is pricing in a 7.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($5,952,066) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($83,197) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 19¢ | $75,310,664 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | 2¢ | $44,762,746 |
| Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | 1¢ | $32,812,820 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-11-01, 8 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 7¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 93¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 7¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 7.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $5,952,066 in total traded volume and $83,197 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.