The biggest repricing on Polymarket over the seven days to November 9 came in one tech question with two sides. Traders moved sharply toward SpaceX and away from Anthropic in the market on which company will post the highest IPO market cap of 2026. Several smaller moves came from the James Bond casting markets, the Fed's December decision and Bitcoin's year-end target.
SpaceX and Anthropic swap places
Polymarket asks which company will have the highest IPO market cap in 2026, with a separate contract for each candidate. On November 2, the Anthropic contract traded at 43 cents and the SpaceX contract at 57 cents. That was a contested race, with the market giving SpaceX a modest edge. Seven days later, SpaceX sits at 88 cents and Anthropic at 9 cents.
In probability terms, the market now gives SpaceX about an 88% chance of finishing on top and Anthropic about 9%. Anthropic lost 34 points and SpaceX gained 31. Money backs both contracts. The Anthropic contract has traded $1,637,620 and the SpaceX contract $1,364,679. Both close on January 2, 2027, so the result will be known only after the calendar year ends.
A related Anthropic contract fell in the same direction. The market asking whether Anthropic's valuation will hit $3.0 trillion by December 31 dropped from 20 cents to 6 cents. That move takes the implied chance from one in five to about one in seventeen. It is the more heavily traded of the two Anthropic contracts, with $1,799,922 in volume, and it closes January 5, 2027.
The Bond casting market reshuffles
Two Polymarket contracts on the next James Bond moved hard in opposite directions. Jack Lowden climbed from 12 cents on November 4 to 37 cents, which means traders now put his chances at roughly 37% where they recently saw about 12%. Callum Turner went the other way, falling from 40 cents on November 8 to 24 cents. Turner's drop happened over a single day, while Lowden's rise came across five.
Lowden's contract has drawn $389,087 in volume and Turner's $203,353. Both settle on an announcement and close on January 1, 2027. Together the two names account for 61 cents of probability, so the market still treats the role as open. It now leans toward Lowden.
In the same culture category, the contract on whether Avengers: Doomsday will have the best domestic opening weekend of 2026 rose from 52 cents to 67 cents. That shifts a near coin flip to roughly a two-in-three chance. It has $642,775 traded and closes February 1, 2027.
Rates, Bitcoin and Iran
The market on whether the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points after its December 2026 meeting moved from 70 cents to 76 cents. Traders now put a hike at about a three-in-four chance. With $5,053,233 in volume, it is one of the deeper markets on this week's list, and it closes December 9, 2026, so the answer arrives within a month.
Bitcoin's year-end market moved the other way. The contract on whether Bitcoin will reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026 fell from 30 cents to 22 cents, roughly a one-in-five chance. It has traded $2,877,444 and closes January 1, 2027.
The largest market among the week's movers concerns Iran. The contract on whether Mojtaba Khamenei will be head of state at the end of 2026 rose from 85 cents to 92 cents on $7,177,806 in volume. It closes December 31, 2026.
Iran also tops the volume table. The market asking whether the U.S. will invade Iran before 2027 has drawn $78,907,348 and trades at 12 cents. The list of most-traded markets also includes several long shots priced at 1 cent with more than $49 million each. These include Jesus Christ returning before 2027 and LeBron James winning the 2028 presidential election. At 1 cent, those markets give near-zero odds even though they have attracted large total volume.
Where Kalshi and Polymarket disagree
The widest gap between the two platforms is on Gavin Newsom winning the 2028 Democratic nomination. Kalshi prices it at 12 cents and Polymarket at 8 cents, a 4.0-point difference. On Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez the order flips, with Polymarket higher at 16 cents against Kalshi's 14, a 2.9-point gap. In sports, Kalshi has Arsenal winning the 2026-27 Premier League at 79 cents against Polymarket's 76. Smaller gaps appear on Ro Khanna, the Golden State Warriors and the Jacksonville Jaguars, all at 2.2 points or less.
Closing in the coming days
Two contracts on the list are still open and settle soon. The League of Legends Worlds Playoffs best-of-five between Bilibili Gaming and T1 closes November 9. It trades at 74 cents, which reads as roughly a three-in-four chance for the YES side, and it has $3,759,295 in volume.
The Kai Cenat GTA marathon contract asks whether he finishes by November 10 and closes November 11. It rose from 16 cents on November 7 to 23 cents, so the market still sees completion as less likely than not, at about a one-in-four chance. Both markets will settle within days, so this week's prices can be checked against actual results soon.