Brazil's election market reversed completely
The largest move of the week came from Polymarket's two main contracts on the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. On October 19, the market asking whether Flávio Bolsonaro would win traded at 79 cents. That price implied roughly a four in five chance of victory. It now sits at 1 cent. Over the same stretch, the contract on Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rose from 20 cents to 99 cents, which reads as near certainty.
A swing of that size in a week is rare for a market this heavily traded. The Bolsonaro contract has drawn $60,293,498 in volume, enough to place it third on the list of most-traded open contracts. The Lula contract has drawn $45,097,777. Together, more than $105 million has changed hands on the two sides of the question. Both contracts close on October 26, so the prices now amount to a final verdict, with traders pricing almost no remaining doubt in either direction.
Harry Kane firms up as the Ballon d'Or favorite
The 2026 Ballon d'Or markets on Polymarket close on October 27, and the past week reshaped the order behind the leader. Harry Kane rose from 65 cents to 72 cents, which means traders now give him close to a three in four chance of winning. His contract has drawn $7,818,993 in volume, the most of the three main candidates.
The bigger moves came lower down. Lamine Yamal fell from 27 cents to 11 cents, cutting his implied chance by more than half. Kylian Mbappé moved the other way, climbing from 3 cents to 16 cents. That puts Mbappé ahead of Yamal for second place in the market's view. Mbappé's contract has traded $7,177,005 and Yamal's $6,403,836. The three prices add up to 99 cents, so traders see almost no chance of a winner outside this group.
The Fed looks set to hold in October
Traders grew more confident that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at its October 2026 meeting. The Polymarket contract on no change rose from 88 cents to 94 cents, a 94 percent implied probability. The contract on a 25 basis point increase fell from 12 cents to 6 cents.
These are deep markets. The no change contract has drawn $20,120,195 in volume and the increase contract $15,435,678. Both settle on October 29, after the meeting outcome is known. The six point shift in each is modest in size, but it shows that the small remaining chance of a hike shrank by half over the week.
Bitcoin cools while Anthropic's IPO odds climb
The Polymarket contract asking whether Bitcoin will reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026, fell from 56 cents to 46 cents. A week ago, the market leaned slightly toward yes. It now leans slightly toward no. The contract has drawn $2,535,232 and closes on January 1, 2027, which leaves more than two months for the price to move again.
In tech, the contract on whether Anthropic will hold an IPO by December 31, 2026, rose from 74 cents to 84 cents, roughly a five in six chance. A related question went the other way. The market on whether Anthropic will have the highest IPO market cap of 2026 slipped from 35 cents to 28 cents. Traders are more confident that the listing will happen this year and somewhat less confident that it will top the year's IPO rankings. Both contracts carry about $1.4 million in volume and settle in early January 2027.
Where Kalshi and Polymarket disagree
The widest gap between the two platforms on the same question is in the 2027 French presidential election. Kalshi prices Marine Le Pen at 50 cents and Polymarket at 43 cents, a gap of 6.2 points with 175 days left. Manchester City's chances of winning the 2026-27 Premier League show a 4.5 point gap, at 18 cents on Kalshi and 14 cents on Polymarket. On Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez winning the 2028 Democratic nomination, Polymarket is higher, at 17 cents against Kalshi's 14 cents. Smaller gaps appear on the Minnesota Timberwolves for the 2027 NBA Finals, Bilibili Gaming for Worlds 2026, and the San Francisco 49ers for the 2027 NFL championship.
Contracts closing in the coming week
Several markets with real uncertainty settle soon. Chiefs vs. Seahawks closes on October 26, with YES at 28 cents and $3,704,414 traded. The three Ballon d'Or contracts close on October 27, with Kane at 72 cents, Mbappé at 16 cents and Yamal at 11 cents.
Also on October 27, the weekly Elon Musk tweet count markets settle for the period from October 20 to October 27. The 320 to 339 range is priced at 36 cents and the 340 to 359 range at 23 cents. These are thin markets, with volume of $57,818 and $82,346.
On October 28, the contract on whether Benjamin Netanyahu will be the next Prime Minister of Israel closes at 26 cents, with $11,534,558 traded. Finally, the market on whether the US and Iran ceasefire continues through October 31 sits at 82 cents with $6,710,398 in volume, and it settles on October 31. Separately, the longer-dated contract on whether the U.S. will invade Iran before 2027 remains the most-traded open market at $75,423,787, priced at 20 cents. The ceasefire contract is the nearest market on that relationship to settle, so its October 31 result will come well before that larger question resolves.