The largest swing in this week's data came in crypto, where traders cut their odds that Bitcoin reaches a new price milestone before the year ends. Other notable moves came in the tech IPO markets, where Anthropic gained on SpaceX in the race for the biggest listing, and in Fed markets, where a December hike is still favored but by less than before.
Bitcoin Targets Lose Altitude
The Polymarket contract asking whether Bitcoin will reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026, fell from 46 cents on October 26 to 30 cents now. That 16-point drop was the biggest move in this week's data. A week ago the market treated $90,000 as close to a coin flip. Now it implies roughly a 30% chance.
The $100,000 contract followed the same path. It fell from 18 cents to 10 cents, which implies about a one in ten chance. That market has also drawn more money than any other contract in the movers list, at $4,048,938 traded, compared with $2,728,275 on the $90,000 question. Both contracts close on January 1, 2027. Each one settles YES only if Bitcoin touches its target before the end of December. The two prices fell together, so traders cut their odds on the whole upside path, not on one threshold alone.
Anthropic Closes In on SpaceX for the Biggest IPO
On Polymarket, the question of which company will have the highest IPO market cap in 2026 changed a lot in seven days. Anthropic's YES price rose from 28 cents to 43 cents, a 15-point gain. SpaceX fell from 68 cents to 57 cents. The two prices now add up to exactly 100 cents. In practice, the market sees this as a two-company race, with SpaceX still slightly favored.
A related contract asks whether Anthropic will IPO at all by December 31, 2026. It rose from 84 cents to 92 cents, so traders now treat a listing this year as very likely. Those two moves fit together. A company has to list before it can post the year's largest IPO market cap, and the rise in listing odds supports the rise in the market-cap contract. The market-cap question closes January 2, 2027.
Two other tech markets moved down. The contract on whether OpenAI's IPO closing market cap will exceed $1 trillion fell from 70 cents to 62 cents. It does not close until January 1, 2028, so it has a long time to run. Perplexity AI's acquisition odds before 2027 dropped from 14 cents to 6 cents, which leaves a deal looking like a long shot. That market has $2,415,277 in volume.
The Fed Hike Is Still Favored, With Less Confidence
Polymarket's December Fed markets moved in opposite directions this week. The contract on a 25 basis point increase after the December 2026 meeting fell from 78 cents on October 28 to 70 cents. The contract on no change rose from 16 cents to 28 cents. Traders still put the odds of a hike at about 70%, and they have moved a meaningful share of their probability toward a hold. Both markets have heavy volume, with $2,384,916 on the hike and $2,514,142 on the hold. Both close on December 9, 2026, when the meeting decision settles them.
In entertainment, Avengers: Doomsday's odds of the best domestic opening weekend in 2026 fell from 60 cents to 52 cents. That market does not close until February 1, 2027.
Where the Biggest Money Sits
The contract with the most money traded is Polymarket's question on whether the U.S. will invade Iran before 2027, with $76,150,957 in volume. Its YES price is 18 cents, so traders put the odds at under one in five. China invading Taiwan by the end of 2026 trades at 2 cents on $45,524,898 in volume.
Much of the rest of the volume list is made up of long-shot contracts priced at 1 cent. These include Jesus Christ returning before 2027, at $66,841,711, and a group of 2028 contracts on LeBron James, Oprah Winfrey, Bernie Sanders, Chelsea Clinton and Andrew Yang. Each of those has around $50 million traded. Large volume on a contract priced at 1 cent does not mean traders think the event is likely. The price itself says the market sees almost no chance of YES.
Kalshi and Polymarket Disagree, Slightly
The gaps between the two platforms on matching questions were small this week. The widest was on Marine Le Pen winning the 2027 French presidential election. Kalshi has her at 44 cents and Polymarket at 40 cents, a gap of 3.2 points with 168 days left. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's 2028 Democratic nomination odds sit at 14 cents on Kalshi and 16 cents on Polymarket. Manchester City winning the 2026-27 Premier League shows 13 cents on Kalshi against 10 on Polymarket. The Boston Celtics' 2027 NBA Finals odds and the Dallas Cowboys' 2026 NFC East odds each differ by 2.0 points. The Cowboys market resolves soonest, with 63 days left.
Closing This Week
Two Polymarket contracts on Elon Musk's posting volume settle on November 3, 2026. They count his tweets from October 27 through November 3. The 440-459 range is priced at 19 cents and the 400-419 range at 17 cents. Neither range is above 20%, which shows the market expects the total to land somewhere in a wide band. The final count decides which bracket pays out. Anyone following these contracts can check them once the counting window ends on November 3, after which the settled brackets will drop off next week's list.