politics

Will there be between 120m and 125m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?

PlatformPolymarket Expires2026-11-03 Volume$9,714 Open Interest$11,893
YES
16¢
Implied probability: 16.0%
NO
84¢
Implied probability: 84.0%
30-DAY PROBABILITY HISTORY Low 16¢ · High 16¢ · Δ +0.0pp
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YES Price
16¢
NO Price
84¢
Total Volume
$9,714
Open Interest
$11,893
Expiration
2026-11-03
Days Left
38
About this market

What resolves this contract

The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Reading the odds on this market

At 16.0¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 16.0% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 6.

$10 on YES buys about 62 contracts that pay $62.50 if it happens; $10 on NO at 84.0¢ buys about 11.9 that pay $11.90 if it does not.

$9,714 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $11,893 still riding on the outcome, making it number 130 by volume of the 199 markets we track.

Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.

How to read the price

Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 16¢ means the market is pricing in a 16.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.

Volume vs. open interest

Total traded volume ($9,714) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($11,893) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.

Where to trade this market

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.

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FAQ

Common questions about this market

How is this market resolved?

The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

When does this contract expire?

This contract closes on 2026-11-03, 38 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).

What happens if I buy YES at 16¢?

If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 84¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 16¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 16.0% probability of YES.

Where is this market listed?

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.

How reliable is the quoted price?

This market has $9,714 in total traded volume and $11,893 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.

Disclaimer: Prediction market data on this page is sourced from public order books. Prices change continuously; figures shown here reflect the last refresh at 2026-09-26. Nothing on this page constitutes investment or betting advice.
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