Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such a
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 24¢ means the market is pricing in a 24.6% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($96,348) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($1,164) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 2¢ | $9,973,145 |
| Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | 1¢ | $9,615,159 |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 5¢ | $9,612,578 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such a
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2027-01-01, 123 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 24¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 75¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 24¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 24.6% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $96,348 in total traded volume and $1,164 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.