politics

Will the Democrats win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?

PlatformPolymarket Expires2026-11-03 Volume$98,516 Open Interest$35,617
YES
1¢
Implied probability: 1.0%
NO
99¢
Implied probability: 99.9%
30-DAY PROBABILITY HISTORY Low 1¢ · High 1¢ · Δ +0.0pp
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YES Price
1¢
NO Price
99¢
Total Volume
$98,516
Open Interest
$35,617
Expiration
2026-11-03
Days Left
40
About this market

What resolves this contract

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Nebraska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the conve

Reading the odds on this market

At 1.0¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 1.0% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 100.

$10 on YES buys about 1,000 contracts that pay $1,000.00 if it happens; $10 on NO at 99.0¢ buys about 10.1 that pay $10.10 if it does not.

The favoured side, NO, returns 1.0% if it wins, with the money locked up for 40 days until November 3, 2026; that works out to about 9.6% a year.

$98,516 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $35,617 still riding on the outcome, making it number 17 by volume of the 218 markets we track.

Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.

How to read the price

Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 1¢ means the market is pricing in a 1.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.

Volume vs. open interest

Total traded volume ($98,516) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($35,617) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.

Where to trade this market

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.

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Markets in the same story

MarketYESVolume
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? 1¢ $9,678,472
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027? 36¢ $98,151
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? 31¢ $97,001
FAQ

Common questions about this market

How is this market resolved?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Nebraska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the conve

When does this contract expire?

This contract closes on 2026-11-03, 40 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).

What happens if I buy YES at 1¢?

If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 99¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 1¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 1.0% probability of YES.

Where is this market listed?

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.

How reliable is the quoted price?

This market has $98,516 in total traded volume and $35,617 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.

Disclaimer: Prediction market data on this page is sourced from public order books. Prices change continuously; figures shown here reflect the last refresh at 2026-09-24. Nothing on this page constitutes investment or betting advice.
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