Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?
No other exchange lists this exact question right now. The Divergence Index shows the questions that trade on two or three venues at once.
What resolves this contract
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range,
Reading the odds on this market
At 9.2¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 9.2% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 11.
$10 on YES buys about 109 contracts that pay $108.70 if it happens; $10 on NO at 90.8¢ buys about 11.0 that pay $11.01 if it does not.
The favoured side, NO, returns 10.1% if it wins, with the money locked up for 70 days until January 1, 2027; that works out to about 65.4% a year.
$2,429,093 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $13,469 still riding on the outcome, making it number 106 by volume of the 396 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 9¢ means the market is pricing in a 9.2% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($2,429,093) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($13,469) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Similar markets on the US-regulated exchange
Kalshi lists related contracts US traders can legally access. Spread is typically similar; liquidity varies.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | 92¢ | $17,857,619 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | 11¢ | $15,442,924 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | 7¢ | $13,785,821 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range,
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2027-01-01, 70 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 9¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 91¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 9¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 9.2% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $2,429,093 in total traded volume and $13,469 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.