Will the Republican Party win the PA-13 House seat?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these p
Reading the odds on this market
At 96.4¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 96.4% chance this happens, roughly 26.8 to 1 in favour.
$10 on YES buys about 10 contracts that pay $10.37 if it happens; $10 on NO at 3.6¢ buys about 277.8 that pay $277.78 if it does not.
The favoured side, YES, returns 3.7% if it wins, with the money locked up for 40 days until November 5, 2026; that works out to about 39.7% a year.
Over the last 31 daily readings the YES price barely moved, trading between 96.4¢ and 97.9¢.
$9,916 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $8,462 still riding on the outcome, making it number 75 by volume of the 215 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 96¢ means the market is pricing in a 96.4% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,916) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($8,462) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | 1¢ | $9,678,802 |
| Will the Democrats win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? | 1¢ | $98,516 |
| Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027? | 32¢ | $98,151 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these p
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-11-04, 40 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 96¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 4¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 96¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 96.4% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,916 in total traded volume and $8,462 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.