Will the Democratic Party win the IA-02 House seat?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these p
Reading the odds on this market
At 52.5¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 52.5% chance this happens, roughly 1.1 to 1 in favour.
$10 on YES buys about 19 contracts that pay $19.05 if it happens; $10 on NO at 47.5¢ buys about 21.1 that pay $21.05 if it does not.
$9,652 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $48,624 still riding on the outcome, making it number 161 by volume of the 241 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 52¢ means the market is pricing in a 52.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,652) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($48,624) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | 1¢ | $9,726,615 |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? | 5¢ | $963,309 |
| Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027? | 32¢ | $98,352 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these p
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-11-04, 34 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 52¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 48¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 52¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 52.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,652 in total traded volume and $48,624 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.