Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito
Reading the odds on this market
At 5.5¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 5.5% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 18.
$10 on YES buys about 182 contracts that pay $181.82 if it happens; $10 on NO at 94.5¢ buys about 10.6 that pay $10.58 if it does not.
The favoured side, NO, returns 5.8% if it wins, with the money locked up for 92 days until January 1, 2027; that works out to about 25.2% a year.
$963,309 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $109,619 still riding on the outcome, making it number 11 by volume of the 241 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 5¢ means the market is pricing in a 5.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($963,309) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($109,619) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | 1¢ | $9,726,615 |
| Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027? | 32¢ | $98,352 |
| Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? | 15¢ | $97,331 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2027-01-01, 92 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 5¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 94¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 5¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 5.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $963,309 in total traded volume and $109,619 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.