Will Smith College exclude trans women in 2026?
What resolves this contract
Smith College is an all-women's college in Massachusetts that is currently undergoing a federal civil rights investigation for its policies relating to transgender women. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Smith College changes its policies to exclude the future admission of or to unenroll current students who were born male and identify as transgender women from its Northampton campus by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No." The existence of or potential for individualized waivers from a general policy shall not be sufficient to prevent this market
Reading the odds on this market
At 12.0¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 12.0% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 8.
$10 on YES buys about 83 contracts that pay $83.33 if it happens; $10 on NO at 88.0¢ buys about 11.4 that pay $11.36 if it does not.
The favoured side, NO, returns 13.6% if it wins, with the money locked up for 91 days until January 2, 2027; that works out to about 67.0% a year.
$9,716 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $10,701 still riding on the outcome, making it number 129 by volume of the 192 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 12¢ means the market is pricing in a 12.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,716) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($10,701) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | 1¢ | $9,727,974 |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? | 6¢ | $977,260 |
| Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027? | 34¢ | $98,352 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
Smith College is an all-women's college in Massachusetts that is currently undergoing a federal civil rights investigation for its policies relating to transgender women. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Smith College changes its policies to exclude the future admission of or to unenroll current students who were born male and identify as transgender women from its Northampton campus by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No." The existence of or potential for individualized waivers from a general policy shall not be sufficient to prevent this market
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2027-01-01, 91 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 12¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 88¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 12¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 12.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,716 in total traded volume and $10,701 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.