Will Payward announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Payward announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents Payward. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Reading the odds on this market
At 14.5¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 14.5% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 7.
$10 on YES buys about 69 contracts that pay $68.97 if it happens; $10 on NO at 85.5¢ buys about 11.7 that pay $11.70 if it does not.
The favoured side, NO, returns 17.0% if it wins, with the money locked up for 464 days until January 1, 2028; that works out to about 13.1% a year.
$9,780 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $150,632 still riding on the outcome, making it number 104 by volume of the 218 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 14¢ means the market is pricing in a 14.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,780) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($150,632) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026? | 4¢ | $997,498 |
| Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? | 3¢ | $984,195 |
| Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026? | 89¢ | $98,606 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Payward announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents Payward. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2028-01-01, 464 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 14¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 86¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 14¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 14.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,780 in total traded volume and $150,632 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.