tech

Will Payward announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?

PlatformPolymarket Expires2028-01-01 Volume$9,780 Open Interest$150,632
YES
14¢
Implied probability: 14.5%
NO
85¢
Implied probability: 85.5%
30-DAY PROBABILITY HISTORY Low 14¢ · High 14¢ · Δ +0.0pp
Advertisement
Kalshi · $25 sign-up bonus Trade event contracts legally in the US. Get $25 free. Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US exchange for event contracts. Sign up with our link and get $25 in trading credit, no deposit required to claim. This specific contract is on Polymarket (not available to US traders), but Kalshi lists similar events. Open an account → Gemini · Trade $100, get $20 Prediction markets on a regulated US crypto exchange. Gemini is the NYDFS-regulated exchange offering prediction markets alongside spot crypto. New users who trade $100 get $20. Affiliate link; we may earn a commission at no cost to you. Claim the offer →
YES Price
14¢
NO Price
85¢
Total Volume
$9,780
Open Interest
$150,632
Expiration
2028-01-01
Days Left
464
About this market

What resolves this contract

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Payward announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents Payward. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Reading the odds on this market

At 14.5¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 14.5% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 7.

$10 on YES buys about 69 contracts that pay $68.97 if it happens; $10 on NO at 85.5¢ buys about 11.7 that pay $11.70 if it does not.

The favoured side, NO, returns 17.0% if it wins, with the money locked up for 464 days until January 1, 2028; that works out to about 13.1% a year.

$9,780 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $150,632 still riding on the outcome, making it number 104 by volume of the 218 markets we track.

Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.

How to read the price

Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 14¢ means the market is pricing in a 14.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.

Volume vs. open interest

Total traded volume ($9,780) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($150,632) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.

Where to trade this market

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.

Advertisement
Related

Markets in the same story

MarketYESVolume
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026? 4¢ $997,498
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? 3¢ $984,195
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026? 89¢ $98,606
FAQ

Common questions about this market

How is this market resolved?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Payward announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents Payward. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

When does this contract expire?

This contract closes on 2028-01-01, 464 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).

What happens if I buy YES at 14¢?

If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 86¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 14¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 14.5% probability of YES.

Where is this market listed?

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.

How reliable is the quoted price?

This market has $9,780 in total traded volume and $150,632 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.

Disclaimer: Prediction market data on this page is sourced from public order books. Prices change continuously; figures shown here reflect the last refresh at 2026-09-24. Nothing on this page constitutes investment or betting advice.
Get new posts in your inbox. No spam, unsubscribe anytime.