Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be orde
Reading the odds on this market
At 89.0¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 89.0% chance this happens, roughly 8.1 to 1 in favour.
$10 on YES buys about 11 contracts that pay $11.24 if it happens; $10 on NO at 11.0¢ buys about 90.9 that pay $90.91 if it does not.
The favoured side, YES, returns 12.4% if it wins, with the money locked up for 6 days until September 30, 2026; that works out to about 119787.7% a year.
$98,606 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $5,376 still riding on the outcome, making it number 14 by volume of the 218 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 89¢ means the market is pricing in a 89.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($98,606) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($5,376) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026? | 4¢ | $997,498 |
| Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? | 3¢ | $984,195 |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? | 61¢ | $96,338 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be orde
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-09-30, 6 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 89¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 11¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 89¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 89.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $98,606 in total traded volume and $5,376 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.