Will Patrick Paquet win the next Vanier-Les Rivières Quebec National Assembly election?
What resolves this contract
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Vanier-Les Rivières Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official ele
Reading the odds on this market
At 83.5¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 83.5% chance this happens, roughly 5.1 to 1 in favour.
$10 on YES buys about 12 contracts that pay $11.98 if it happens; $10 on NO at 16.5¢ buys about 60.6 that pay $60.61 if it does not.
$9,748 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $15,003 still riding on the outcome, making it number 122 by volume of the 190 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 83¢ means the market is pricing in a 83.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,748) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($15,003) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
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Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Vanier-Les Rivières Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official ele
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-10-05, 3 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 83¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 17¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 83¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 83.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,748 in total traded volume and $15,003 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.