Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof. A first-instan
Reading the odds on this market
At 14.5¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 14.5% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 7.
$10 on YES buys about 69 contracts that pay $68.97 if it happens; $10 on NO at 85.5¢ buys about 11.7 that pay $11.70 if it does not.
The favoured side, NO, returns 17.0% if it wins, with the money locked up for 462 days until January 1, 2028; that works out to about 13.2% a year.
Over the last 31 daily readings the YES price moved up 3.5 points, trading between 11.0¢ and 14.5¢.
$99,618 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $352 still riding on the outcome, making it number 14 by volume of the 200 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 14¢ means the market is pricing in a 14.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($99,618) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($352) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 24¢ | $993,082 |
| Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? | 85¢ | $99,606 |
| Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026? | 13¢ | $99,606 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof. A first-instan
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2028-01-01, 462 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 14¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 86¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 14¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 14.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $99,618 in total traded volume and $352 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.