Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?
What resolves this contract
The Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a
Reading the odds on this market
At 81.7¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 81.7% chance this happens, roughly 4.5 to 1 in favour.
$10 on YES buys about 12 contracts that pay $12.24 if it happens; $10 on NO at 18.3¢ buys about 54.6 that pay $54.64 if it does not.
$96,726 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $56,082 still riding on the outcome, making it number 40 by volume of the 220 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 81¢ means the market is pricing in a 81.7% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($96,726) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($56,082) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 25¢ | $988,110 |
| Iran full airspace closure by September 30? | 5¢ | $974,690 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? | 10¢ | $965,724 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
The Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-10-05, 10 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 81¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 18¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 81¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 81.7% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $96,726 in total traded volume and $56,082 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.