Iran full airspace closure by September 30?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “general closure” refers to a cancellation or suspension of aviation which is generally applicable to all commercial flights transiting Iranian airspace (“Tehran FIR”). A qualifying closure must apply generally to all of Iran or the Tehran FIR; limited cancellations, delays, or partial closures will not qualify. A closure which applies generally to commerc
Reading the odds on this market
At 5.5¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 5.5% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 18.
$10 on YES buys about 183 contracts that pay $183.49 if it happens; $10 on NO at 94.5¢ buys about 10.6 that pay $10.58 if it does not.
The favoured side, NO, returns 5.8% if it wins, with the money locked up for 123 days until January 26, 2027; that works out to about 18.1% a year.
$974,690 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $40,976 still riding on the outcome, making it number 12 by volume of the 220 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 5¢ means the market is pricing in a 5.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($974,690) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($40,976) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
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Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “general closure” refers to a cancellation or suspension of aviation which is generally applicable to all commercial flights transiting Iranian airspace (“Tehran FIR”). A qualifying closure must apply generally to all of Iran or the Tehran FIR; limited cancellations, delays, or partial closures will not qualify. A closure which applies generally to commerc
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2027-01-26, 123 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 5¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 95¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 5¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 5.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $974,690 in total traded volume and $40,976 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.