Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technocrat?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to the political party of the next officially appointed and confirmed Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the Prime Minister must be both formally appointed by the President of Romania and receive a vote of confidence from Parliament, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If the prime minister comes from inside parliament, the party of the Prime Ministe
Reading the odds on this market
At 64.5¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 64.5% chance this happens, roughly 1.8 to 1 in favour.
$10 on YES buys about 16 contracts that pay $15.50 if it happens; $10 on NO at 35.5¢ buys about 28.2 that pay $28.17 if it does not.
$98,360 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $4,842 still riding on the outcome, making it number 23 by volume of the 241 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 64¢ means the market is pricing in a 64.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($98,360) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($4,842) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
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Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to the political party of the next officially appointed and confirmed Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the Prime Minister must be both formally appointed by the President of Romania and receive a vote of confidence from Parliament, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If the prime minister comes from inside parliament, the party of the Prime Ministe
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2028-01-01, 457 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 64¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 36¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 64¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 64.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $98,360 in total traded volume and $4,842 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.