economy

Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technocrat?

PlatformPolymarket Expires2026-06-30 Volume$9,543 Open Interest$6,496
YES
55¢
Implied probability: 55.5%
NO
44¢
Implied probability: 44.5%
30-DAY PROBABILITY HISTORY Low 55¢ · High 55¢ · Δ +0.0pp
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YES Price
55¢
NO Price
44¢
Total Volume
$9,543
Open Interest
$6,496
Expiration
2026-06-30
Days Left
28
About this market

What resolves this contract

This market will resolve to the political party of the next officially appointed and confirmed Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the Prime Minister must be both formally appointed by the President of Romania and receive a vote of confidence from Parliament, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If the prime minister comes from inside parliament, the party of the Prime Ministe

How to read the price

Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 55¢ means the market is pricing in a 55.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.

Volume vs. open interest

Total traded volume ($9,543) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($6,496) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.

Where to trade this market

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.

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FAQ

Common questions about this market

How is this market resolved?

This market will resolve to the political party of the next officially appointed and confirmed Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the Prime Minister must be both formally appointed by the President of Romania and receive a vote of confidence from Parliament, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If the prime minister comes from inside parliament, the party of the Prime Ministe

When does this contract expire?

This contract closes on 2026-06-30, 28 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).

What happens if I buy YES at 55¢?

If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 44¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 55¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 55.5% probability of YES.

Where is this market listed?

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.

How reliable is the quoted price?

This market has $9,543 in total traded volume and $6,496 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.

Disclaimer: Prediction market data on this page is sourced from public order books. Prices change continuously; figures shown here reflect the last refresh at 2026-06-02. Nothing on this page constitutes investment or betting advice.
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