Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?
No other exchange lists this exact question right now. The Divergence Index shows the questions that trade on two or three venues at once.
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be
Reading the odds on this market
At 96.0¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 96.0% chance this happens, roughly 24.0 to 1 in favour.
$10 on YES buys about 10 contracts that pay $10.42 if it happens; $10 on NO at 4.0¢ buys about 250.0 that pay $250.00 if it does not.
The favoured side, YES, returns 4.2% if it wins, with the money locked up for 60 days until January 2, 2027; that works out to about 28.2% a year.
$935,585 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $91,217 still riding on the outcome, making it number 137 by volume of the 354 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 96¢ means the market is pricing in a 96.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($935,585) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($91,217) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | 2¢ | $43,345,465 |
| Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? | 2¢ | $7,962,525 |
| Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? | 18¢ | $5,070,537 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2027-01-01, 60 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 96¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 4¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 96¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 96.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $935,585 in total traded volume and $91,217 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.