Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
No other exchange lists this exact question right now. The Divergence Index shows the questions that trade on two or three venues at once.
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reading the odds on this market
At 66.5¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 66.5% chance this happens, roughly 2.0 to 1 in favour.
$10 on YES buys about 15 contracts that pay $15.04 if it happens; $10 on NO at 33.5¢ buys about 29.9 that pay $29.85 if it does not.
$1,495,817 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $82,213 still riding on the outcome, making it number 121 by volume of the 396 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 66¢ means the market is pricing in a 66.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($1,495,817) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($82,213) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | 11¢ | $15,724,046 |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | 96¢ | $9,206,392 |
| Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | 1¢ | $5,324,529 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2027-01-01, 65 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 66¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 34¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 66¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 66.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $1,495,817 in total traded volume and $82,213 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.