Will Cadu de Lula win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?
What resolves this contract
The Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated
Reading the odds on this market
At 18.5¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 18.5% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 5.
$10 on YES buys about 54 contracts that pay $54.05 if it happens; $10 on NO at 81.5¢ buys about 12.3 that pay $12.27 if it does not.
$9,712 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $14,798 still riding on the outcome, making it number 139 by volume of the 219 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 18¢ means the market is pricing in a 18.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,712) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($14,798) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 60¢ | $989,911 |
| Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027? | 14¢ | $99,633 |
| Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027? | 87¢ | $99,382 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
The Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-10-05, 3 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 18¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 82¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 18¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 18.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,712 in total traded volume and $14,798 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.