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Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?

PlatformPolymarket Expires2028-01-01 Volume$99,382 Open Interest$25,071
YES
87¢
Implied probability: 87.5%
NO
12¢
Implied probability: 12.5%
30-DAY PROBABILITY HISTORY Low 87¢ · High 87¢ · Δ +0.0pp
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YES Price
87¢
NO Price
12¢
Total Volume
$99,382
Open Interest
$25,071
Expiration
2028-01-01
Days Left
460
About this market

What resolves this contract

This market will resolve to the number of unique individuals who officially hold the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom at any point between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on the number of unique individuals to hold the position. For example, if an individual is appointed twice within the specified timeframe, they will only count once for resolution. To count for resolution, an individual must have been officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. An individual’s time of appointment will have no bearing on this market so

Reading the odds on this market

At 87.5¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 87.5% chance this happens, roughly 7.0 to 1 in favour.

$10 on YES buys about 11 contracts that pay $11.43 if it happens; $10 on NO at 12.5¢ buys about 80.0 that pay $80.00 if it does not.

The favoured side, YES, returns 14.3% if it wins, with the money locked up for 460 days until January 1, 2028; that works out to about 11.2% a year.

$99,382 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $25,071 still riding on the outcome, making it number 17 by volume of the 204 markets we track.

Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.

How to read the price

Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 87¢ means the market is pricing in a 87.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.

Volume vs. open interest

Total traded volume ($99,382) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($25,071) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.

Where to trade this market

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.

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FAQ

Common questions about this market

How is this market resolved?

This market will resolve to the number of unique individuals who officially hold the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom at any point between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on the number of unique individuals to hold the position. For example, if an individual is appointed twice within the specified timeframe, they will only count once for resolution. To count for resolution, an individual must have been officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. An individual’s time of appointment will have no bearing on this market so

When does this contract expire?

This contract closes on 2028-01-01, 460 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).

What happens if I buy YES at 87¢?

If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 12¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 87¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 87.5% probability of YES.

Where is this market listed?

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.

How reliable is the quoted price?

This market has $99,382 in total traded volume and $25,071 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.

Disclaimer: Prediction market data on this page is sourced from public order books. Prices change continuously; figures shown here reflect the last refresh at 2026-09-28. Nothing on this page constitutes investment or betting advice.
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