Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine goes into effect by 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET) on the specified date and remains continuously in effect for at least 10 calendar days. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A ceasefire refers to any mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries, and which constitutes a general suspension of direct kinetic military engage
Reading the odds on this market
At 13.5¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 13.5% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 7.
$10 on YES buys about 74 contracts that pay $74.07 if it happens; $10 on NO at 86.5¢ buys about 11.6 that pay $11.56 if it does not.
The favoured side, NO, returns 15.6% if it wins, with the money locked up for 94 days until December 31, 2026; that works out to about 75.6% a year.
$965,243 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $110,064 still riding on the outcome, making it number 12 by volume of the 204 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 13¢ means the market is pricing in a 13.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($965,243) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($110,064) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September? | 1¢ | $995,253 |
| Will Karim Bouamrane win the 2027 French presidential election? | 1¢ | $966,769 |
| Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027? | 14¢ | $99,618 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine goes into effect by 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET) on the specified date and remains continuously in effect for at least 10 calendar days. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A ceasefire refers to any mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries, and which constitutes a general suspension of direct kinetic military engage
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-12-31, 94 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 13¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 86¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 13¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 13.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $965,243 in total traded volume and $110,064 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.