Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
What resolves this contract
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December
Reading the odds on this market
At 35.5¢ for YES, traders are pricing about a 35.5% chance this happens, roughly 1 in 3.
$10 on YES buys about 28 contracts that pay $28.17 if it happens; $10 on NO at 64.5¢ buys about 15.5 that pay $15.50 if it does not.
$6,187,727 has traded on it on Polymarket, with $737,072 still riding on the outcome, making it number 52 by volume of the 209 markets we track.
Payouts are before platform fees; one contract pays $1 if its side wins.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 35¢ means the market is pricing in a 35.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($6,187,727) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($737,072) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 14¢ | $72,161,998 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | 2¢ | $43,619,225 |
| Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | 1¢ | $32,790,733 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-10-28, 22 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 35¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 64¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 35¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 35.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $6,187,727 in total traded volume and $737,072 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.