Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 22¢ means the market is pricing in a 22.9% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($96,033) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($10,382) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Similar markets on the US-regulated exchange
Kalshi lists related contracts US traders can legally access. Spread is typically similar; liquidity varies.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? | 6¢ | $982,296 |
| Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026? | 3¢ | $966,382 |
| Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 1¢ | $961,752 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-12-31, 112 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 22¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 77¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 22¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 22.9% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $96,033 in total traded volume and $10,382 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.